# Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros — MLB, Wednesday, September 30, 2026

MLB game on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at Daikin Park, Houston. Status: scheduled.

## Model

| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Projected total | 8.0 |
| Projected home margin | 0.6 |
| Model edges priced | 5 |

## Game lines

| Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU -1.5 | +150 | 38.8% | 40.0% | −1.2% |
| CHW +1.5 | −180 | 61.2% | 64.3% | −3.1% |
| Over 7.5 | −110 | 49.5% | 52.4% | −2.8% |
| Under 7.5 | −110 | 50.5% | 52.4% | −1.9% |
| HOU ML | −150 | 57.8% | 60.0% | −2.2% |
| CHW ML | +125 | 42.2% | 44.4% | −2.3% |

## Top prop edges

| Player | Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz | under 0.5 Batter BB | −425 | 82.7% | 81.0% | +1.8% |
| Jeremy Pena | under 0.5 Batter BB | −325 | 78.0% | 76.5% | +1.5% |
| Christian Walker | under 0.5 Batter BB | −275 | 74.7% | 73.3% | +1.4% |

Full board: https://app.edgegoat.com

## FAQ

**When does Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros start?**

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros (MLB) starts at 5:00 PM ET on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at Daikin Park, Houston.

**What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros?**

The model projects about 8.0 combined runs.

**Who does the model favor in Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros?**

The model favors Houston Astros by about 0.6 runs.

**How many model edges are there for Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros?**

The model currently finds 5 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Yainer Diaz under 0.5 batter bb (−425): model 82.7% vs book 81.0%, an edge of +1.8%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.

## Related

- [Houston Astros](https://edgegoat.com/mlb/teams/hou)
- [Chicago White Sox](https://edgegoat.com/mlb/teams/chw)
- [MLB slate for Wednesday, September 30, 2026](https://edgegoat.com/mlb/2026-09-30)

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Source: EdgeGoat model projections (https://edgegoat.com) — CC BY 4.0 · data as of 2026-09-30
Canonical: https://edgegoat.com/mlb/games/2026-09-30-chw-at-hou
License: CC BY 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Methodology: https://edgegoat.com/methodology
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.