# Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves — MLB, Wednesday, September 30, 2026

MLB game on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Truist Park, Atlanta. Status: scheduled.

## Model

| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Projected total | 7.7 |
| Projected home margin | -0.1 |
| Model edges priced | 9 |

## Game lines

| Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL +1.5 | −185 | 62.5% | 64.9% | −2.4% |
| PHI -1.5 | +150 | 37.5% | 40.0% | −2.5% |
| Over 7.5 | +110 | 46.4% | 47.6% | −1.3% |
| Under 7.5 | −135 | 53.6% | 57.4% | −3.8% |
| ATL ML | −105 | 49.1% | 51.2% | −2.1% |
| PHI ML | −115 | 50.9% | 53.5% | −2.6% |

## Top prop edges

| Player | Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmundo Sosa | under 0.5 Batter BB | −550 | 88.7% | 84.6% | +4.1% |
| Alec Bohm | under 0.5 Batter BB | −275 | 76.2% | 73.3% | +2.9% |
| J.T. Realmuto | under 0.5 Batter BB | −325 | 79.0% | 76.5% | +2.6% |

Full board: https://app.edgegoat.com

## FAQ

**When does Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves start?**

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (MLB) starts at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at Truist Park, Atlanta.

**What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves?**

The model projects about 7.7 combined runs.

**Who does the model favor in Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves?**

The model favors Philadelphia Phillies by about 0.1 runs.

**How many model edges are there for Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves?**

The model currently finds 9 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Edmundo Sosa under 0.5 batter bb (−550): model 88.7% vs book 84.6%, an edge of +4.1%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.

## Related

- [Atlanta Braves](https://edgegoat.com/mlb/teams/atl)
- [Philadelphia Phillies](https://edgegoat.com/mlb/teams/phi)
- [MLB slate for Wednesday, September 30, 2026](https://edgegoat.com/mlb/2026-09-30)

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Source: EdgeGoat model projections (https://edgegoat.com) — CC BY 4.0 · data as of 2026-09-30
Canonical: https://edgegoat.com/mlb/games/2026-09-30-phi-at-atl
License: CC BY 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Methodology: https://edgegoat.com/methodology
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.