# NFL projections and model edges

## Upcoming

- [Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/games/2026-10-01-pit-at-cle) — Thursday, October 1, 2026
- [Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/games/2026-10-04-ind-at-wsh) — Sunday, October 4, 2026
- [Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/games/2026-10-04-ari-at-nyg) — Sunday, October 4, 2026
- [Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/games/2026-10-04-dal-at-hou) — Sunday, October 4, 2026
- [Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/games/2026-10-04-gb-at-tb) — Sunday, October 4, 2026
- [Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/games/2026-10-04-jax-at-cin) — Sunday, October 4, 2026
- [Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/games/2026-10-04-lar-at-phi) — Sunday, October 4, 2026
- [New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/games/2026-10-04-ne-at-buf) — Sunday, October 4, 2026

## Top model edges

| Player | Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | under 67.5 Rush Yds | +140 | 65.2% | 41.7% | +23.6% |
| Jalen Hurts | under 20.5 Rush Yds | +125 | 67.8% | 44.4% | +23.4% |
| Makai Lemon | under 2.5 Rec | +135 | 61.3% | 42.6% | +18.7% |
| Cam Ward | under 9.5 Rush Yds | −110 | 70.4% | 52.4% | +18.1% |
| Daniel Jones | under 11.5 Rush Yds | −115 | 70.5% | 53.5% | +17.0% |

## Teams

- [Arizona Cardinals](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/ari)
- [Atlanta Falcons](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/atl)
- [Baltimore Ravens](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/bal)
- [Buffalo Bills](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/buf)
- [Carolina Panthers](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/car)
- [Chicago Bears](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/chi)
- [Cincinnati Bengals](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/cin)
- [Cleveland Browns](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/cle)
- [Dallas Cowboys](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/dal)
- [Denver Broncos](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/den)
- [Detroit Lions](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/det)
- [Green Bay Packers](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/gb)
- [Houston Texans](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/hou)
- [Indianapolis Colts](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/ind)
- [Jacksonville Jaguars](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/jax)
- [Kansas City Chiefs](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/kc)
- [Las Vegas Raiders](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/lv)
- [Los Angeles Chargers](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/lac)
- [Los Angeles Rams](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/lar)
- [Miami Dolphins](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/mia)
- [Minnesota Vikings](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/min)
- [New England Patriots](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/ne)
- [New Orleans Saints](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/no)
- [New York Giants](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/nyg)
- [New York Jets](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/nyj)
- [Philadelphia Eagles](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/phi)
- [Pittsburgh Steelers](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/pit)
- [San Francisco 49ers](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/sf)
- [Seattle Seahawks](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/sea)
- [Tampa Bay Buccaneers](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/tb)
- [Tennessee Titans](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/ten)
- [Washington Commanders](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/wsh)

---

Source: EdgeGoat model projections (https://edgegoat.com) — CC BY 4.0 · data as of 2026-09-30
Canonical: https://edgegoat.com/nfl
License: CC BY 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Methodology: https://edgegoat.com/methodology
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.