# Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns — NFL, Thursday, October 1, 2026

NFL game on Thursday, October 1, 2026, 8:15 PM ET at Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland. Status: scheduled.

## Model

| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Projected total | 38 |
| Projected home margin | -2.5 |
| Model edges priced | 10 |

## Game lines

| Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE +2.5 | +100 | 47.4% | 50.0% | −2.6% |
| PIT -2.5 | −120 | 52.6% | 54.5% | −2.0% |
| Over 38 | −110 | 50.0% | 52.4% | −2.4% |
| Under 38 | −110 | 50.0% | 52.4% | −2.4% |
| CLE ML | +125 | 41.6% | 44.4% | −2.9% |
| PIT ML | −145 | 58.4% | 59.2% | −0.7% |

## Top prop edges

| Player | Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | under 95.5 Rush+Rec Yds | −115 | 68.1% | 53.5% | +14.6% |
| Aaron Rodgers | under 4.5 Rush Yds | −210 | 78.2% | 67.7% | +10.5% |
| Quinshon Judkins | under 57.5 Rush Yds | −125 | 65.6% | 55.6% | +10.0% |

Full board: https://app.edgegoat.com

## FAQ

**When does Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns start?**

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (NFL) starts at 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, October 1, 2026 at Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland.

**What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns?**

The model projects about 38 combined points.

**Who does the model favor in Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns?**

The model favors Pittsburgh Steelers by about 2.5 points.

**How many model edges are there for Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns?**

The model currently finds 10 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Jaylen Warren under 95.5 rush+rec yds (−115): model 68.1% vs book 53.5%, an edge of +14.6%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.

## Related

- [Cleveland Browns](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/cle)
- [Pittsburgh Steelers](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/pit)
- [NFL slate for Thursday, October 1, 2026](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/2026-10-01)

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Source: EdgeGoat model projections (https://edgegoat.com) — CC BY 4.0 · data as of 2026-09-30
Canonical: https://edgegoat.com/nfl/games/2026-10-01-pit-at-cle
License: CC BY 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Methodology: https://edgegoat.com/methodology
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.