# Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers — NFL, Sunday, October 4, 2026

NFL game on Sunday, October 4, 2026, 4:25 PM ET at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara. Status: scheduled.

## Model

| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Projected total | 48.5 |
| Projected home margin | 2.5 |
| Model edges priced | 8 |

## Game lines

| Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF -2.5 | −120 | 52.6% | 54.5% | −2.0% |
| DEN +2.5 | +100 | 47.4% | 50.0% | −2.6% |
| Over 48 | −110 | 51.5% | 52.4% | −0.9% |
| Under 48 | −110 | 48.5% | 52.4% | −3.9% |
| SF ML | −145 | 58.4% | 59.2% | −0.7% |
| DEN ML | +120 | 41.6% | 45.5% | −3.9% |

## Top prop edges

| Player | Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | under 109.5 Rush+Rec Yds | −115 | 68.4% | 53.5% | +14.9% |
| J.K. Dobbins | under 60.5 Rush Yds | −115 | 65.2% | 53.5% | +11.7% |
| Christian McCaffrey | under 15.5 Carries | −105 | 60.4% | 51.2% | +9.2% |

Full board: https://app.edgegoat.com

## FAQ

**When does Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers start?**

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (NFL) starts at 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara.

**What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers?**

The model projects about 48.5 combined points.

**Who does the model favor in Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers?**

The model favors San Francisco 49ers by about 2.5 points.

**How many model edges are there for Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers?**

The model currently finds 8 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Christian McCaffrey under 109.5 rush+rec yds (−115): model 68.4% vs book 53.5%, an edge of +14.9%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.

## Related

- [San Francisco 49ers](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/sf)
- [Denver Broncos](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/den)
- [NFL slate for Sunday, October 4, 2026](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/2026-10-04)

---

Source: EdgeGoat model projections (https://edgegoat.com) — CC BY 4.0 · data as of 2026-09-30
Canonical: https://edgegoat.com/nfl/games/2026-10-04-den-at-sf
License: CC BY 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Methodology: https://edgegoat.com/methodology
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.