# Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — NFL, Sunday, October 4, 2026

NFL game on Sunday, October 4, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa. Status: scheduled.

## Model

| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Projected total | 39.5 |
| Projected home margin | -4 |
| Model edges priced | 5 |

## Game lines

| Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB +3.5 | −110 | 50.7% | 52.4% | −1.7% |
| GB -3.5 | −110 | 49.3% | 52.4% | −3.0% |
| Over 39.5 | −110 | 50.0% | 52.4% | −2.4% |
| Under 39.5 | −110 | 50.0% | 52.4% | −2.4% |
| TB ML | +165 | 36.7% | 37.7% | −1.1% |
| GB ML | −195 | 63.3% | 66.1% | −2.8% |

## Top prop edges

| Player | Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleb Johnson | under 29.5 Rush Yds | −110 | 68.9% | 52.4% | +16.5% |
| Jordan Love | under 7.5 Rush Yds | −185 | 71.7% | 64.9% | +6.8% |
| Jalon Daniels | over 169.5 Pass Yds | −115 | 59.9% | 53.5% | +6.4% |

Full board: https://app.edgegoat.com

## FAQ

**When does Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers start?**

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) starts at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa.

**What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?**

The model projects about 39.5 combined points.

**Who does the model favor in Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?**

The model favors Green Bay Packers by about 4 points.

**How many model edges are there for Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?**

The model currently finds 5 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Kaleb Johnson under 29.5 rush yds (−110): model 68.9% vs book 52.4%, an edge of +16.5%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.

## Related

- [Tampa Bay Buccaneers](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/tb)
- [Green Bay Packers](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/gb)
- [NFL slate for Sunday, October 4, 2026](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/2026-10-04)

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Source: EdgeGoat model projections (https://edgegoat.com) — CC BY 4.0 · data as of 2026-09-30
Canonical: https://edgegoat.com/nfl/games/2026-10-04-gb-at-tb
License: CC BY 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Methodology: https://edgegoat.com/methodology
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.