# New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills — NFL, Sunday, October 4, 2026

NFL game on Sunday, October 4, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park. Status: scheduled.

## Model

| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Projected total | 48.5 |
| Projected home margin | 7 |
| Model edges priced | 12 |

## Game lines

| Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF -7 | −105 | 46.4% | 51.2% | −4.8% |
| NE +7 | −115 | 53.6% | 53.5% | +0.1% |
| Over 48.5 | −110 | 50.0% | 52.4% | −2.4% |
| Under 48.5 | −110 | 50.0% | 52.4% | −2.4% |
| BUF ML | −300 | 72.4% | 75.0% | −2.6% |
| NE ML | +250 | 27.6% | 28.6% | −1.0% |

## Top prop edges

| Player | Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | over 38.5 Rush Yds | +145 | 55.4% | 40.8% | +14.5% |
| Josh Allen | under 238.5 Pass Yds | −105 | 63.2% | 51.2% | +12.0% |
| Drake Maye | under 30.5 Pass Att | −105 | 61.6% | 51.2% | +10.4% |

Full board: https://app.edgegoat.com

## FAQ

**When does New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills start?**

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (NFL) starts at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park.

**What total does the EdgeGoat model project for New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills?**

The model projects about 48.5 combined points.

**Who does the model favor in New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills?**

The model favors Buffalo Bills by about 7 points.

**How many model edges are there for New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills?**

The model currently finds 12 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Josh Allen over 38.5 rush yds (+145): model 55.4% vs book 40.8%, an edge of +14.5%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.

## Related

- [Buffalo Bills](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/buf)
- [New England Patriots](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/ne)
- [NFL slate for Sunday, October 4, 2026](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/2026-10-04)

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Source: EdgeGoat model projections (https://edgegoat.com) — CC BY 4.0 · data as of 2026-09-30
Canonical: https://edgegoat.com/nfl/games/2026-10-04-ne-at-buf
License: CC BY 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Methodology: https://edgegoat.com/methodology
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.