# Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints — NFL, Monday, October 5, 2026

NFL game on Monday, October 5, 2026, 8:15 PM ET at Caesars Superdome, New Orleans. Status: scheduled.

## Model

| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Projected total | 48.5 |
| Projected home margin | 3 |
| Model edges priced | 8 |

## Game lines

| Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO -2.5 | −120 | 54.2% | 54.5% | −0.3% |
| ATL +2.5 | +100 | 45.8% | 50.0% | −4.2% |
| Over 48 | −110 | 51.5% | 52.4% | −0.9% |
| Under 48 | −110 | 48.5% | 52.4% | −3.9% |
| NO ML | −145 | 60.1% | 59.2% | +0.9% |
| ATL ML | +125 | 39.9% | 44.4% | −4.5% |

## Top prop edges

| Player | Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | over 31.5 Pass Att | −125 | 68.1% | 55.6% | +12.6% |
| Kendre Miller | over 25.5 Rush Yds | +145 | 52.4% | 40.8% | +11.6% |
| Bijan Robinson | under 4.5 Rec | −120 | 61.4% | 54.5% | +6.8% |

Full board: https://app.edgegoat.com

## FAQ

**When does Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints start?**

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (NFL) starts at 8:15 PM ET on Monday, October 5, 2026 at Caesars Superdome, New Orleans.

**What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints?**

The model projects about 48.5 combined points.

**Who does the model favor in Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints?**

The model favors New Orleans Saints by about 3 points.

**How many model edges are there for Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints?**

The model currently finds 8 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Tyler Shough over 31.5 pass att (−125): model 68.1% vs book 55.6%, an edge of +12.6%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.

## Related

- [New Orleans Saints](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/no)
- [Atlanta Falcons](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/teams/atl)
- [NFL slate for Monday, October 5, 2026](https://edgegoat.com/nfl/2026-10-05)

---

Source: EdgeGoat model projections (https://edgegoat.com) — CC BY 4.0 · data as of 2026-09-30
Canonical: https://edgegoat.com/nfl/games/2026-10-05-atl-at-no
License: CC BY 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Methodology: https://edgegoat.com/methodology
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.