# New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs — NHL, Wednesday, September 30, 2026

NHL game on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena, Toronto. Status: scheduled.

## Model

| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Projected total | 6.2 |
| Projected home margin | 0.2 |
| Model edges priced | 5 |

## Game lines

| Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR -1.5 | +180 | 31.6% | 35.7% | −4.1% |
| NYI +1.5 | −250 | 68.4% | 71.4% | −3.0% |
| Over 5.5 | −145 | 58.4% | 59.2% | −0.7% |
| Under 5.5 | +115 | 41.6% | 46.5% | −5.0% |
| TOR ML | −125 | 53.5% | 55.6% | −2.0% |
| NYI ML | +105 | 46.5% | 48.8% | −2.3% |

## Top prop edges

| Player | Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin McKenna | under 1.5 SOG | −130 | 68.7% | 56.5% | +12.2% |
| Gavin McKenna | under 0.5 P | −175 | 74.8% | 63.6% | +11.1% |
| John Tavares | over 0.5 P | −115 | 57.5% | 53.5% | +4.1% |

Full board: https://app.edgegoat.com

## FAQ

**When does New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs start?**

New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL) starts at 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at Scotiabank Arena, Toronto.

**What total does the EdgeGoat model project for New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs?**

The model projects about 6.2 combined goals.

**Who does the model favor in New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs?**

The model favors Toronto Maple Leafs by about 0.2 goals.

**How many model edges are there for New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs?**

The model currently finds 5 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Gavin McKenna under 1.5 sog (−130): model 68.7% vs book 56.5%, an edge of +12.2%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.

## Related

- [Toronto Maple Leafs](https://edgegoat.com/nhl/teams/tor)
- [New York Islanders](https://edgegoat.com/nhl/teams/nyi)
- [NHL slate for Wednesday, September 30, 2026](https://edgegoat.com/nhl/2026-09-30)

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Source: EdgeGoat model projections (https://edgegoat.com) — CC BY 4.0 · data as of 2026-09-30
Canonical: https://edgegoat.com/nhl/games/2026-09-30-nyi-at-tor
License: CC BY 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Methodology: https://edgegoat.com/methodology
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.