# Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers — NHL, Wednesday, September 30, 2026

NHL game on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia. Status: scheduled.

## Model

| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Projected total | 6.2 |
| Projected home margin | 0.3 |
| Model edges priced | 10 |

## Game lines

| Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI -1.5 | +160 | 33.5% | 38.5% | −5.0% |
| PIT +1.5 | −210 | 66.5% | 67.7% | −1.2% |
| Over 6.5 | +105 | 43.1% | 48.8% | −5.7% |
| Under 6.5 | −130 | 56.9% | 56.5% | +0.4% |
| PHI ML | −135 | 55.4% | 57.4% | −2.0% |
| PIT ML | +115 | 44.6% | 46.5% | −2.0% |

## Top prop edges

| Player | Line | Price | Model % | Book % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby | over 1.5 SOG | −165 | 75.1% | 62.3% | +12.8% |
| Jamie Drysdale | under 0.5 P | −140 | 67.9% | 58.3% | +9.6% |
| Evgeni Malkin | over 1.5 SOG | −130 | 63.7% | 56.5% | +7.2% |

Full board: https://app.edgegoat.com

## FAQ

**When does Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers start?**

Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers (NHL) starts at 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia.

**What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers?**

The model projects about 6.2 combined goals.

**Who does the model favor in Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers?**

The model favors Philadelphia Flyers by about 0.3 goals.

**How many model edges are there for Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers?**

The model currently finds 10 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Sidney Crosby over 1.5 sog (−165): model 75.1% vs book 62.3%, an edge of +12.8%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.

## Related

- [Philadelphia Flyers](https://edgegoat.com/nhl/teams/phi)
- [Pittsburgh Penguins](https://edgegoat.com/nhl/teams/pit)
- [NHL slate for Wednesday, September 30, 2026](https://edgegoat.com/nhl/2026-09-30)

---

Source: EdgeGoat model projections (https://edgegoat.com) — CC BY 4.0 · data as of 2026-09-30
Canonical: https://edgegoat.com/nhl/games/2026-09-30-pit-at-phi
License: CC BY 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Methodology: https://edgegoat.com/methodology
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.