EdgeGoatHard Rock sets the odds.We show you where our model disagrees.
Our model's win chance next to the book's on every line. The gap is the model's estimated edge, not a guarantee.
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- Giannis AntetokounmpoUnder 17.5 REB+AST79.6%52.4%+27.2 pts
- Jadarian PriceUnder 58.5 Rush+Rec Yds80.3%53.5%+26.8 pts
Where the model disagrees with the book
A few of today's largest gaps between the model's probability and the break-even rate of the Hard Rock price. The full board — every line, every league — lives in the app.
Model = our win chance · Book = the win rate the Hard Rock price needs to break even · Edge = Model − Book, in points. Glossary
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 17.5 REB+ASTDET @ MIA | 79.6% | 52.4%−110 | +27.2 pts | |
| Under 58.5 Rush+Rec YdsSEA @ LV | 80.3% | 53.5%−115 | +26.8 pts | |
| Under 78.5 Rush+Rec YdsSEA @ LV | 78.9% | 53.5%−115 | +25.4 pts | |
| Under 22.5 PTS+ASTBKN @ MEM | 77.4% | 54.5%−120 | +22.9 pts | |
| Over 0.5 PTSMIN @ BOS | 86.0% | 70.6%−240 | +15.4 pts | |
| Over 0.5 PTSOTT @ PIT | 71.7% | 57.4%−135 | +14.3 pts |
- Under 17.5 REB+ASTDET @ MIA+27.2 pts
- Model
- 79.6%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 58.5 Rush+Rec YdsSEA @ LV+26.8 pts
- Model
- 80.3%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 78.5 Rush+Rec YdsSEA @ LV+25.4 pts
- Model
- 78.9%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 22.5 PTS+ASTBKN @ MEM+22.9 pts
- Model
- 77.4%
- Book
- 54.5%−120
- Over 0.5 PTSMIN @ BOS+15.4 pts
- Model
- 86.0%
- Book
- 70.6%−240
- Over 0.5 PTSOTT @ PIT+14.3 pts
- Model
- 71.7%
- Book
- 57.4%−135
Every edge gets graded.
Every positive-edge line is frozen before the start and graded after the final at the real Hard Rock price — misses included, voids counted as zero.
Three surfaces. One workflow. Hard Rock built-in.
Choose your edges, build a correlated slip, then hand it off to Hard Rock Bet in one tap. Every leg keeps its selection ID so your slip lands pre-filled — then track it live as the game unfolds.
Find the edge before you build the slip.
Every available prop is scored against our projection. The Builder ranks candidates by EV, surfaces alt lines, and flags when legs correlate so you stop blindly stacking same-game.
Pregame and live, separated for a reason.
Pregame edges refresh with every projection and odds update, and edges on markets our forward tracking hasn't confirmed yet are marked Beta. Live prices recompute play by play; a live edge is listed only where that league's live edge feed is switched on.
Watch every leg settle in real time.
Leg-by-leg progress bars, live win probability, auto-resolution when overs hit, void detection on DNPs. Open a card and know exactly where your slip stands.
Built around Hard Rock Bet's prices. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet.
Every leg you add to the cart carries its Hard Rock selection ID. One tap opens your betslip — pre-filled, identical, ready to place. No screenshots, no copy-pasting odds.
- −110Jayson TatumO 27.5 PTS · BOS
- +105Auston MatthewsO 4.5 SOG · TOR
- −125Aaron JudgeO 1.5 TB · NYY
- −115Nikola JokićO 49.5 PRA · DEN
- −110Jayson TatumO 27.5 PTS · BOS
- +105Auston MatthewsO 4.5 SOG · TOR
- −125Aaron JudgeO 1.5 TB · NYY
- −115Nikola JokićO 49.5 PRA · DEN
EdgeGoat is not affiliated with Hard Rock Digital. We generate the open-app deeplink from each leg's public selection ID — your bet is placed entirely inside the Hard Rock app.
Seven leagues priced. One engine.
Same projections, correlation modeling and live tracking in every league. Edges in every league we price. Edges on markets our forward tracking hasn’t confirmed yet are marked Beta. Leagues marked beta are still having their projections validated, so treat their numbers as experimental. NFL game lines are priced but not ranked as edges yet.
Player props · spreads · totals
Goals · SOG · Saves
Player props · totals
Hits · TBs · K-rates
Player props · game lines priced only
Esports soccer · totals · 3-way · draws
1v1 soccer · 3-way · draws
College hoops · projections in validation
Built for Florida fans.
In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet, so EdgeGoat is built around one book: every projection is compared with Hard Rock's price for that line, and every leg can open in the Hard Rock Bet app. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.
Hard Rock's own prices
Every projection is compared with Hard Rock Bet's exact price for that line, so the model % and the book % you see are about the same bet.
One-tap handoff
Every leg carries its Hard Rock selection ID, so your slip opens pre-filled in Hard Rock Bet.
Florida-tuned
Heat, Magic, Bucs, Bolts, 'Noles, Gators, Hurricanes: Florida teams first in every league we price.
EdgeGoat is an independent edge tool. We do not place bets. Hard Rock Bet (operated by Hard Rock Digital, LLC) is a separate entity — we generate open-app deeplinks from public selection IDs.
Everything to find, build, and settle.
Built for bettors who care more about edge than action — and want a tool that quantifies both.
ML Projections
Per-stat distributions for every player. Trained walk-forward across multiple seasons, tuned per league.
Smart Builder
Surfaces alt lines sorted by EV, ranks candidates by hit rate, and warns when legs share underlying signal.
Live Tracker
Auto-settles in-game when overs hit, voids on DNPs, surfaces win-probability shifts every play.
Edge Detection
Compares model projections to live sportsbook lines and ranks the slate by EV — pregame and in-game.
Correlation Modeling
Visualizes correlation between legs in your cart so you stop double-counting same-game signal.
Multi-League
NFL, MLB, WNBA, NBA, NHL and esports soccer (Volta, FIFA, including draws and 3-way moneylines); college basketball in beta. Edges in every league we price. Edges on markets our forward tracking hasn’t confirmed yet are marked Beta. NFL game lines are priced, not ranked as edges.
Track every leg without staying glued to a screen.
The native iOS app is on its way to the App Store; until it's live, you can join the TestFlight beta. Push notifications fire the moment a leg settles, the over hits, or the player is ruled out. Same builder, same tracker, same model — in your pocket.
- Push notifications for leg settlement & DNP voids
- On iPhone, Live Activities keep your parlay on the Lock Screen
- Live tracking on the go, parity with web
- Apple Sign-In, no extra password to remember
The beta is invite-only. Send your Apple ID email and we'll add you to TestFlight.
Pay for what you'll actually use.
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Free
Kick the tires.
- Live scoreboards across every league
- The top 10 pre-game edges in each league every day, ranked by edge
- Model % vs book % on every game's spread, total and moneyline
- 1 live in-game edge a day, on a game you pick, where a live edge is showing
- Save up to 3 parlays per day
- Bet history with P&L tracking
Pro
The whole model, pre-game.
$16.58/mo billed yearly, save 43% vs monthly
7-day free trial for new members
- Everything in Free
- Every pre-game edge in every league, with edges our forward tracking hasn’t confirmed yet marked Beta
- Model % vs book % on every line and prop, not just the top few
- Player projections & distributions
- Smart Builder with correlation-aware parlay pricing
- Top 3 live in-game edges per game, where a live edge is showing
- Unlimited saved parlays
- Alerts when a line you starred moves
Sharp
Everything, plus every move.
$45.75/mo billed yearly, save 42% vs monthly
- Everything in Pro
- Edge movers feed: lines whose edge just grew, shrank or appeared
- Every live in-game edge where one is showing, re-priced as the game plays out (live is model % vs book % only in leagues whose live model is still being validated, including esports)
- Live edge search & filters
- Live in-game edge alerts
- Priority support
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Questions worth asking.
If yours isn't here, email [email protected].
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).