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Kelly Criterion Calculator

Calculate the bankroll % that maximizes long-run growth — or scale to quarter Kelly for lower variance.

Odds format
Conservative25% · quarter KellyAggressive
Recommended stake
$20.83
Your edge
+5.00%
Expected profit
+$2.60
Full Kelly · scaled8.33% · 2.08%
The math, done for every line
EdgeGoat prices every Hard Rock line with its own model, shows its probability next to the book's, and tracks your parlays leg by leg. Free to start.
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How to use the Kelly Criterion Calculator

The Kelly Criterion is the bet-sizing formula that maximizes long-term bankroll growth given an edge. It says: bet a fraction f* = (p×b – q) / b of your bankroll, where p is your true win probability, q = 1-p, and b is your net odds (decimal – 1).

Full Kelly has maximum growth but high variance — a multi-month losing streak is normal. Most professional bettors stake at quarter Kelly (25% of full) or half Kelly (50%) to smooth the equity curve and survive inevitable model error. If your true probabilities are off by even 2%, half Kelly will dramatically outperform full Kelly over time.

Enter your bankroll, the sportsbook's price, and your honest estimate of the true win probability. If the formula returns negative, your projected probability is lower than the implied price — Kelly says skip the bet.

Frequently asked questions

f* = (p × b − q) / b, where p is your win probability, q = 1 − p, and b is the net decimal odds (decimal − 1). Multiply by bankroll for the recommended stake.

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The math, done for every line
EdgeGoat prices every Hard Rock line with its own model, shows its probability next to the book's, and tracks your parlays leg by leg. Free to start.
Sign up freeGet the iOS app