EdgeGoatNFL projections and model edges
Every NFL line the model prices, with its probability next to the sportsbook's. Slate for Saturday, November 14, 2026.
Top NFL model edges
The largest gaps between model probability and the break-even rate of the Hard Rock price.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 58.5 Rush+Rec YdsSEA @ LV | 80.3% | 53.5%−115 | +26.8 pts | |
| Under 78.5 Rush+Rec YdsSEA @ LV | 78.9% | 53.5%−115 | +25.4 pts | |
| Under 74.5 Rush+Rec YdsBUF @ NYJ | 74.0% | 53.5%−115 | +20.5 pts | |
| Under 44.5 Rush+Rec YdsHOU @ CLE | 71.4% | 53.5%−115 | +17.9 pts | |
| Over 218.5 Pass YdsLAR @ ARI | 67.4% | 50.0%+100 | +17.4 pts |
- Under 58.5 Rush+Rec YdsSEA @ LV+26.8 pts
- Model
- 80.3%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 78.5 Rush+Rec YdsSEA @ LV+25.4 pts
- Model
- 78.9%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 74.5 Rush+Rec YdsBUF @ NYJ+20.5 pts
- Model
- 74.0%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 44.5 Rush+Rec YdsHOU @ CLE+17.9 pts
- Model
- 71.4%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Over 218.5 Pass YdsLAR @ ARI+17.4 pts
- Model
- 67.4%
- Book
- 50.0%+100
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).