EdgeGoatNFL projections and model edges
Every NFL line the model prices, with its probability next to the sportsbook's. Slate for Wednesday, September 30, 2026.
Next gameOct 1PIT at CLE · 8:15 PM ET
Next 10 days17games scheduled
Top edge+23.6%Saquon Barkley
Top NFL model edges
The largest gaps between model probability and the break-even rate of the Hard Rock price.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Saquon Barkley | Under 67.5 Rush YdsLAR @ PHI | 65.2% | 41.7%+140 | +23.6% |
| Jalen Hurts | Under 20.5 Rush YdsLAR @ PHI | 67.8% | 44.4%+125 | +23.4% |
| Makai Lemon | Under 2.5 RecLAR @ PHI | 61.3% | 42.6%+135 | +18.7% |
 Daniel Jones | Under 11.5 Rush YdsIND @ WSH | 70.5% | 53.5%−115 | +17.0% |
 Davante Adams | Under 4.5 RecLAR @ PHI | 61.4% | 44.4%+125 | +17.0% |
Model % vs the break-even % of the Hard Rock price. How to read thisFull model board in the app →
Coming up
Oct 1 ·8:15 PM ET10 model edges
Oct 4 ·9:30 AM ET8 model edges
Oct 4 ·1:00 PM ETProjected
Oct 4 ·1:00 PM ET9 model edges
Oct 4 ·1:00 PM ET2 model edges
Oct 4 ·1:00 PM ET4 model edges
Oct 4 ·1:00 PM ET14 model edges
Oct 4 ·1:00 PM ET12 model edges
Teams
Arizona CardinalsAtlanta FalconsBaltimore RavensBuffalo BillsCarolina PanthersChicago BearsCincinnati BengalsCleveland BrownsDallas CowboysDenver BroncosDetroit LionsGreen Bay PackersHouston TexansIndianapolis ColtsJacksonville JaguarsKansas City ChiefsLas Vegas RaidersLos Angeles ChargersLos Angeles RamsMiami DolphinsMinnesota VikingsNew England PatriotsNew Orleans SaintsNew York GiantsNew York JetsPhiladelphia EaglesPittsburgh SteelersSan Francisco 49ersSeattle SeahawksTampa Bay BuccaneersTennessee TitansWashington Commanders
NFL betting tools
Free calculators tuned for NFL lines.
The full NFL board is in the app
Every prop and game line the model prices, alt lines, correlation-aware parlay building and live tracking of every leg.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).