Betting glossary

Every term EdgeGoat uses, in plain English. For the full walkthrough — how a price becomes a probability and how the record is graded — see how EdgeGoat works.

Model %: EdgeGoat's probability that the bet wins, read from the projection model's full distribution for the player or game — not just a point estimate. Where a market has a calibration map (fit on how its past lines actually landed), the probability goes through it, and the card's curve and Proj move with it so they always match this number.Example: Model 58% on an over means the model expects it to land about 58 times in 100 comparable games.
Book %: The probability the sportsbook's price implies: the break-even win rate at those odds, vig included.Example: -110 implies 52.4%; +150 implies 40.0%.
Edge: Model % minus book %, in percentage points ("pts"), not a return on your money. A positive edge means the model thinks the bet wins more often than the price needs it to. It describes a price, not a guaranteed result.Example: Model 58% vs book 52.4% → edge +5.6 pts.
EV (expected value): The average profit per unit staked over many bets if the model % is right. At the real price, a positive edge and a positive EV are the same statement.Example: 58% at -110 → EV ≈ +0.107, about 10.7 cents per dollar.
M / B: Where space is tight, M is the model % (blue: EdgeGoat's chance the bet wins) and B is the book % (the break-even rate of the sportsbook's price), the same two numbers as above.Example: M 57% / B 52% → the model is 5 points above the price.
Large disagreement: An edge of 20 points or more. The card shows what the model sees (its projection vs the line, and how often the line hit lately). Books rarely misprice a line by that much, so a gap this big often means the model is missing news: an injury, a scratch, a lineup or role change. The number is not hidden or capped; check the latest news before betting it.
O / U: Over or Under the line. On a total, O 5.5 wins if the two teams combine for 6 or more; U 5.5 wins on 5 or fewer.
Shortest odds (heavy favorites hidden): A filter that hides heavy favorites: lines priced shorter than the setting (e.g. -400) are left out, and the list says how many. A short price needs a very high win rate just to break even and pays little. Tap "Show them" to bring them back.Example: -400 implies 80%: you risk $400 to win $100.
Hit rate (Hit 19 of last 23): How often this exact bet (same line, same side) would have won in the player's recent games played: "Hit 19 of last 23" means 19 wins in the last 23 games he or she played (pushes left out). A short-run record, not the model's probability.
σ (e.g. +0.5σ): How far the model's projection sits from the line, measured in the projection's typical miss (one standard deviation, the "±" next to Proj). +0.5σ means the projection clears the line by half a typical miss on your side; around 0σ is a coin-flip call, +1σ or more a clear one. A negative σ means the projection is on the other side of the line. Count props (shots, points, strikeouts, TDs) show the projected average instead: their curve is drawn as bars, and a σ distance doesn't fit a 0-1-2 count.Example: Proj 26 ± 5 vs a 21.5 line on the over → +0.9σ.
Break-even: The win rate a price needs just to not lose money over time. It is the same number as book %.Example: At -110 you must win 52.4% of the time to break even.
Unit (u): A fixed stake size used to compare results fairly, often 1–2% of a bankroll. "+3.2u" means three and a fifth stakes of profit, whatever the stake is in dollars.
Projection: The model's expected stat line (e.g. 24.6 points): the average of the distribution the card's curve draws, the same one its Model % is read from. The line is the book's number; the over/under is priced against the whole distribution, not just this average.
Leg: One bet inside a parlay. A parlay wins only if every leg wins (void legs drop out).
Correlation: How much two legs tend to win or lose together. A quarterback over and his receiver over are positively correlated, so multiplying their chances as if they were independent misprices the parlay — EdgeGoat prices same-game legs together.
Void: A bet the book cancels and refunds — usually because the player did not play. A void counts as zero units and is left out of hit rates; in a parlay the leg is removed and the odds recalculated.
Parlay hit chance: How often the model expects every leg of a parlay to hit, correlation included. Each added leg multiplies the risk: six legs that each hit 60% hit together only about 5 in 100 times.
Teaser: Moves every leg of the cart one line easier (a lower over, a higher under, more points on a spread). The parlay hits more often and pays less.
Pleaser: The opposite of a teaser: every leg moves one line harder. The parlay hits less often and pays more. Long, high-variance tickets.
Round robin: Several smaller parlays built from the same legs (for example every 2-leg combination of 4 legs), each staked separately, so one miss does not sink everything.
Boost: A sportsbook promotion that raises a winning ticket’s payout by a percentage. Only enter one your book actually gave you.
Bonus bet: A free-bet credit from the sportsbook. A win pays only the profit; the stake itself is not returned.
CLV (closing line value): How your price compares with the final price before the game starts. Consistently beating the closing line is one of the best long-run signs that bets were placed at good prices.
Live vs pregame: Pregame lines are priced before the start. After the start the model keeps projecting from the current score and stats and re-prices each line against the live odds, which move fast.
Edge+: The board of every line where the model's chance is higher than the price's break-even rate, ranked by edge. Pre-game and live tabs; filters let you narrow by league, game, market and side.
Alt lines: Alternate lines: the same market at other numbers (e.g. Over 4.5 and Over 6.5 goals instead of the main 5.5), each with its own price. EdgeGoat prices each one, model % vs book %.
Draw / No draw: Esports and soccer results can end level. "Draw" wins only on a tie after full time; "No draw" (double chance 1-2) wins if either side wins.
Clock (~2:26 left): Esports feeds don't send a game clock, so the time left in the half is estimated from when the half started and the format's fixed half length. It can be a few seconds off.
Stat abbreviations: PTS points (in hockey, goals + assists) · REB rebounds · AST / A assists · G goals · SOG shots on goal · H+R+RBI hits + runs + RBIs · TB total bases · K strikeouts · BB walks · Rec receptions · Yds yards · Rush Att rushing attempts.
H+R+RBI: Hits + runs + runs batted in: one combined baseball prop. A solo home run counts 3 (a hit, a run and an RBI).
PRA: Points + rebounds + assists — one combined basketball prop.
SOG: Shots on goal: a hockey prop counting shots the goalie had to stop or that scored. Missed and blocked shots do not count.

See model % vs book % on today's slate

Every line the model prices, with the edge in points — free to start.

Open the model — free How the model works

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).