Betting glossary

Every term EdgeGoat uses, in plain English. For the full walkthrough — how a price becomes a probability and how the record is graded — see how EdgeGoat works.

Model %: EdgeGoat's probability that the bet wins, read from the projection model's full distribution for the player or game — not just a point estimate.Example: Model 58% on an over means the model expects it to land about 58 times in 100 comparable games.
Book %: The probability the sportsbook's price implies: the break-even win rate at those odds, vig included.Example: -110 implies 52.4%; +150 implies 40.0%.
Edge: Model % minus book %, in percentage points. A positive edge means the model thinks the bet wins more often than the price needs it to. It describes a price, not a guaranteed result.Example: Model 58% vs book 52.4% → edge +5.6 points.
EV (expected value): The average profit per unit staked over many bets if the model % is right. At the real price, a positive edge and a positive EV are the same statement.Example: 58% at -110 → EV ≈ +0.107, about 10.7 cents per dollar.
Break-even: The win rate a price needs just to not lose money over time. It is the same number as book %.Example: At -110 you must win 52.4% of the time to break even.
Unit (u): A fixed stake size used to compare results fairly, often 1–2% of a bankroll. "+3.2u" means three and a fifth stakes of profit, whatever the stake is in dollars.
Projection: The model's expected stat line (e.g. 24.6 points). The line is the book's number; the over/under is priced against the whole distribution, not just this average.
Leg: One bet inside a parlay. A parlay wins only if every leg wins (void legs drop out).
Correlation: How much two legs tend to win or lose together. A quarterback over and his receiver over are positively correlated, so multiplying their chances as if they were independent misprices the parlay — EdgeGoat prices same-game legs together.
Void: A bet the book cancels and refunds — usually because the player did not play. A void counts as zero units and is left out of hit rates; in a parlay the leg is removed and the odds recalculated.
CLV (closing line value): How your price compares with the final price before the game starts. Consistently beating the closing line is one of the best long-run signs that bets were placed at good prices.
Live vs pregame: Pregame lines are priced before the start. After the start the model keeps projecting from the current score and stats and re-prices each line against the live odds, which move fast.
PRA: Points + rebounds + assists — one combined basketball prop.
SOG: Shots on goal — a hockey (or soccer) prop counting shots the goalie had to stop or that scored.

See model % vs book % on today's slate

Every line the model prices, with the edge in points — free to start.

Open the model — free How the model works

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).