EdgeGoatHow EdgeGoat works
Hard Rock sets the odds. Our model puts its own win chance next to the book's on every line, and the gap is the edge. It is a model, not a tipster: it tells you where a price and a probability disagree, and by how much.
1.Every price is a probability
American odds tell you how much you win, but they also hide a second number: how often the bet has to win for you to break even at that price. That number is the book's probability — we call it "book %".
It includes the sportsbook's cut (the vig), which is why both sides of a line add up to more than 100%. We compare against this real, payable price rather than a cleaned-up "fair" price, because it's the price you actually get.
Example: -110 → 110 ÷ (110 + 100) = 52.4%. You need to win 52.4% of -110 bets just to break even. +150 → 100 ÷ (150 + 100) = 40.0%.
2.Our model's probability
For every player and game, the model builds a full range of likely outcomes from recent games, the opponent, who's in the lineup, pace, rest and venue. It then reads off how often the over (or the side) clears the book's line. That's "model %".
Every line is frozen before the game starts and graded afterwards, so the record is forward-only. Nothing on the record page is a backtest.
Graded lines show whether 60% really means about 60 wins in 100. A league's record is published only once its sample is large enough and its calibration passes a fixed bar; until then it is labelled pricing-only.
3.Edge is the gap — and small edges add up
Edge = model % minus book %. If the model says 58% and the price needs 52.4%, the edge is +5.6 points. That's the same thing as a positive expected value (EV): about 10.7 cents of average profit per dollar at -110, if the model is right.
A single bet is mostly luck: a 58% bet still loses 42% of the time, and losing streaks of five or six happen. An edge only shows up over hundreds of bets. That's why results are counted in units — a fixed stake, often 1–2% of a bankroll — so one big bet can't swing the picture.
4.Pregame vs live
Pregame lines are priced before the start, and that pregame price is what the public record grades.
After the start the model keeps projecting from the live score and stats and re-prices each line against the live odds. Live prices move in seconds and books suspend markets often, so a live edge can disappear before you place the bet.
5.Parlays and correlation
A parlay wins only if every leg wins, so its true chance is usually small. Multiplying the legs is only right when they have nothing to do with each other.
Legs from the same game are often linked: a quarterback's passing yards and his receiver's receiving yards tend to go over together. EdgeGoat prices same-game legs together (correlation-aware) and shows the parlay's model % next to what the book's parlay price implies.
6.Our public record — misses included
Every positive-edge primary line is frozen shortly before the game starts, at the real Hard Rock price. After the final it is graded by the same settlement logic that grades your parlays: a win, a loss, or a void (counted as zero units and left out of the hit rate).
We show the hit rate next to the average break-even rate of those prices and the profit of a flat one-unit bet on every line. Losing days stay in. Past results don't predict future ones.
7.What an edge is not
An edge is a statement about a price, not a promise about a result. The model can be wrong, books move lines, and injuries break late. EdgeGoat doesn't take bets and doesn't tell you what to bet.
Bankroll basics: decide your bankroll before you start, bet a small fixed unit, never chase losses, and never bet money you need. If it stops being fun, stop.
8.Responsible gambling
You must be 21 or older and in a place where sports betting is legal. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet. Set deposit and time limits in your sportsbook account, and take a break whenever you need one.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) — free, confidential, 24/7.
Technical details: definitions & formulas
The exact measures every EdgeGoat page quotes.
Model probability (model %)
How often the EdgeGoat model expects an outcome to happen.
The probability the EdgeGoat projection model assigns to one side of a line (over/under, a side, a total). It is read from the model's full predicted distribution for the stat — not from a single point estimate — and is calibrated against settled outcomes. Public pages show a display probability that is shrunk slightly toward the sportsbook's price when the two disagree strongly, so a single outlier never reads as a certainty.
Example: Model 58% on "over 24.5 points" means the model expects the over to land about 58 times in 100 comparable games.
Implied probability (book %)
The break-even win rate baked into the sportsbook price.
The win rate at which a bet at the quoted American odds breaks even. It includes the sportsbook's margin (the vig), so the implied probabilities of both sides of a market add up to more than 100%. EdgeGoat compares the model against this real, payable price — not a de-vigged fair price — because the real price is what a bettor actually gets.
Formula: Negative odds: |odds| ÷ (|odds| + 100). Positive odds: 100 ÷ (odds + 100).
Example: −110 → 52.4%; +150 → 40.0%.
Edge
Model probability minus implied probability.
The gap between how often the model expects an outcome and how often the price needs it to happen to break even. A positive edge at the real price is exactly a positive expected value; a negative edge means the price is worse than the model thinks the outcome deserves. Edge is a statement about a price, not a promise about a single result.
Formula: edge = model probability − implied probability
Example: Model 58% vs book 52.4% (−110) → edge +5.6 points.
Expected value (EV)
Average profit per unit staked if the model probability is right.
The average return per $1 staked over many repetitions, assuming the model probability is correct. EV above zero and edge above zero are the same statement at the real price.
Formula: EV = model probability × decimal odds − 1
Example: 58% at −110 (decimal 1.909) → EV ≈ +0.107, about 10.7 cents per dollar.
Correlation-aware parlay probability
Parlay hit probability that accounts for legs moving together.
The probability that every leg of a parlay wins, computed jointly instead of by multiplying the legs. Legs from the same game are correlated — a quarterback over on passing yards and his receiver over on receiving yards tend to win together — so EdgeGoat joins the legs with a copula over the model distributions. Multiplying correlated legs as if they were independent misstates the true hit rate, which is also how same-game-parlay prices are set.
Projection
The model's predicted distribution for a player or game stat.
A full predicted distribution (mean, spread and shape) for a stat such as points, passing yards, strikeouts or a game total, built from recent game logs, usage and minutes, opponent and pace context, rest and venue. Every probability on the site is read from this distribution against a specific line.
Graded hit rate
How often settled model edges actually won.
Candidates are frozen shortly before each game starts and graded after the final by the same settlement logic that grades user parlays. The graded hit rate is the share of those frozen candidates that won (pushes and voids excluded). It measures the model's record on the prices it flagged, not a promise about future games.
See these numbers on today's slate
Model %, book % and edge for every line the model prices across the NFL, MLB, WNBA, NBA and NHL, plus college basketball in beta. Edges on markets our forward tracking hasn't confirmed yet are marked Beta.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).