Matthew Stafford

Los Angeles Rams · #9 · 29 games logged

Pass Yds · last 20279.5

Pass TD · last 202.2

INT · last 200.8

Rush Yds · last 202.2

Model vs book today

Current lines the model prices for this player — including ones where the book's price is better than the model's number.

Model probability vs book probability
Player	Line	Model	Book	Edge
Matthew Stafford	Over 218.5 Pass YdsLAR @ ARI	67.4%	50.0%+100	+17.4 pts
Matthew Stafford	Over 30.5 Pass AttLAR @ ARI	67.9%	51.2%−105	+16.7 pts
Matthew Stafford	Over 216.5 Pass+Rush YdsLAR @ ARI	69.5%	53.5%−115	+16.0 pts

Matthew Stafford
Over 218.5 Pass YdsLAR @ ARI
+17.4 pts
Model
67.4%
Book
50.0%+100
Matthew Stafford
Over 30.5 Pass AttLAR @ ARI
+16.7 pts
Model
67.9%
Book
51.2%−105
Matthew Stafford
Over 216.5 Pass+Rush YdsLAR @ ARI
+16.0 pts
Model
69.5%
Book
53.5%−115

Model % vs the break-even % of the Hard Rock price. How to read thisFull model board in the app →

Recent game log

Date	Opp	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds
Nov 8	@ WSH	228	1	1	1
Nov 1	vs LAC	157	1	1	0
Oct 25	@ LV	195	3	1	-3
Oct 18	vs ARI	222	2	0	0
Oct 12	vs BUF	383	3	0	0
Oct 4	@ PHI	317	0	2	10
Sep 27	@ DEN	390	2	2	13
Sep 21	vs NYG	327	4	1	-1
Sep 10	vs SF	155	0	1	-1
Jan 25	@ SEA	374	3	0	16
Jan 18	@ CHI	258	0	0	-1
Jan 10	@ CAR	304	3	1	0
Jan 4	vs ARI	259	4	0	3
Dec 29	@ ATL	269	2	3	0
Dec 18	@ SEA	457	3	0	6
Dec 14	vs DET	368	2	1	2
Dec 7	@ ARI	281	3	0	0
Nov 30	@ CAR	243	2	2	-1
Nov 23	vs TB	273	3	0	0
Nov 16	vs SEA	130	2	0	0

Projection vs line history

Model lines frozen before each game: the model's probability next to the break-even rate of the price.

Projection vs line history
Line	Date	Projection	Model	Book
Over 0.5 Rush Yds	Nov 1 · projected 4.3	4.3	50.8%	44.4%
Over 0.5 INT	Nov 1 · projected 0.8	0.8	53.7%	52.4%
Over 0.5 Rush Yds	Oct 25 · projected 4.6	4.6	51.7%	44.4%
Over 0.5 INT	Oct 25 · projected 0.8	0.8	54.0%	51.2%
Over 280.5 Pass+Rush Yds	Oct 18 · projected 333.3	333.3	72.3%	53.5%
Over 0.5 Rush Yds	Oct 18 · projected 6.7	6.7	51.5%	47.6%
Over 0.5 INT	Oct 18 · projected 0.7	0.7	51.8%	46.5%
Over 286.5 Pass Yds	Oct 18 · projected 326.6	326.6	67.3%	50.0%
Over 281.5 Pass+Rush Yds	Oct 12 · projected 316.4	316.4	65.3%	53.5%
Over 4.5 Rush Yds	Oct 12 · projected 8.0	8.0	49.7%	40.8%
Over 278.5 Pass Yds	Oct 12 · projected 308.4	308.4	63.3%	53.5%
Over 0.5 INT	Oct 4 · projected 0.7	0.7	51.5%	51.2%
Over 0.5 Rush Yds	Sep 27 · projected 1.9	1.9	47.2%	45.5%
Over 0.5 INT	Sep 27 · projected 0.9	0.9	58.4%	52.4%

Over 0.5 Rush Yds
Nov 1 · projected 4.3
Model
50.8%
Book
44.4%
Over 0.5 INT
Nov 1 · projected 0.8
Model
53.7%
Book
52.4%
Over 0.5 Rush Yds
Oct 25 · projected 4.6
Model
51.7%
Book
44.4%
Over 0.5 INT
Oct 25 · projected 0.8
Model
54.0%
Book
51.2%
Over 280.5 Pass+Rush Yds
Oct 18 · projected 333.3
Model
72.3%
Book
53.5%
Over 0.5 Rush Yds
Oct 18 · projected 6.7
Model
51.5%
Book
47.6%
Over 0.5 INT
Oct 18 · projected 0.7
Model
51.8%
Book
46.5%
Over 286.5 Pass Yds
Oct 18 · projected 326.6
Model
67.3%
Book
50.0%
Over 281.5 Pass+Rush Yds
Oct 12 · projected 316.4
Model
65.3%
Book
53.5%
Over 4.5 Rush Yds
Oct 12 · projected 8.0
Model
49.7%
Book
40.8%
Over 278.5 Pass Yds
Oct 12 · projected 308.4
Model
63.3%
Book
53.5%
Over 0.5 INT
Oct 4 · projected 0.7
Model
51.5%
Book
51.2%
Over 0.5 Rush Yds
Sep 27 · projected 1.9
Model
47.2%
Book
45.5%
Over 0.5 INT
Sep 27 · projected 0.9
Model
58.4%
Book
52.4%

Frequently asked questions

What is Matthew Stafford averaging over the last 20 games?

Across the last 20 logged games, Matthew Stafford is averaging 279.5 pass yds, 2.2 pass td, 0.8 int, 2.2 rush yds.

How did Matthew Stafford play in the last game?

On Sunday, November 8, 2026 at WSH, Matthew Stafford recorded 228 pass yds, 1 pass td, 1 int, 1 rush yds.

What does the EdgeGoat model say about Matthew Stafford today?

The strongest current line: Matthew Stafford over 218.5 pass yds (+100): model 67.4% vs book 50.0%, an edge of +17.4 pts.

Every Matthew Stafford line, priced

Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.

Open the model — free How the model works

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).