EdgeGoatTampa Bay Lightning at New York RangersPreview · NHL · Thursday, October 1, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET
Madison Square Garden, New York
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
46.8%57.4%−10.7%
Model46.8%Book−13557.4%Edge−10.7%
53.2%46.5%+6.7%
Model53.2%Book+11546.5%Edge+6.7%
SpreadModel: NYR by 0.1
NYR +1.5
Model75.7%Book69.7%−230+6.0%
TotalModel: 5.9 goals
Under 5.5
Model47.0%Book48.8%+105−1.7%
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in goals); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYR ML | 53.2% | 46.5%+115 | +6.7% |
| TB ML | 46.8% | 57.4%−135 | −10.7% |
| NYR +1.5 | 75.7% | 69.7%−230 | +6.0% |
| TB -1.5 | 24.3% | 36.4%+175 | −12.1% |
| Over 5.5 | 53.0% | 56.5%−130 | −3.6% |
| Under 5.5 | 47.0% | 48.8%+105 | −1.7% |
- NYR ML+6.7%
- Model
- 53.2%
- Book
- 46.5%+115
- TB ML−10.7%
- Model
- 46.8%
- Book
- 57.4%−135
- NYR +1.5+6.0%
- Model
- 75.7%
- Book
- 69.7%−230
- TB -1.5−12.1%
- Model
- 24.3%
- Book
- 36.4%+175
- Over 5.5−3.6%
- Model
- 53.0%
- Book
- 56.5%−130
- Under 5.5−1.7%
- Model
- 47.0%
- Book
- 48.8%+105
Frequently asked questions
When does Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers start?
Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers (NHL) starts at 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 1, 2026 at Madison Square Garden, New York.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers?
The model projects about 5.9 combined goals.
Who does the model favor in Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers?
The model favors New York Rangers by about 0.1 goals.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).