EdgeGoat
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees · #99 · 0 games logged
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 totalBases | Sep 16 · projected 2.1 | 2.1 | 61.2% | 51.2% | lost(0) |
| Over 1.5 totalBases | Sep 12 · projected 2.1 | 2.1 | 61.1% | 51.2% | lost(0) |
| Over 1.5 totalBases | Sep 11 · projected 2.1 | 2.1 | 60.9% | 45.5% | lost(1) |
| Over 1.5 totalBases | May 30 · projected 2.1 | 2.1 | 61.8% | 51.2% | lost(0) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | May 29 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 74.7% | 71.4% | won(1) |
| Over 1.5 totalBases | May 29 · projected 2.1 | 2.1 | 61.8% | 53.5% | lost(1) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | May 27 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 86.2% | 72.2% | won(0) |
| Over 1.5 totalBases | May 27 · projected 1.9 | 1.9 | 71.4% | 53.5% | lost(0) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | May 22 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 86.4% | 71.4% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 16 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 96.2% | 59.2% | lost(3) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 15 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 96.2% | 60.0% | won(1) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 12 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 96.1% | 53.5% | lost(2) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 11 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 96.1% | 53.5% | lost(2) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 10 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 96.0% | 58.3% | lost(4) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 9 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 96.0% | 60.0% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 7 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 97.0% | 56.5% | won(1) |
- Over 1.5 totalBasesSep 16 · projected 2.1lost(0)
- Model
- 61.2%
- Book
- 51.2%
- Over 1.5 totalBasesSep 12 · projected 2.1lost(0)
- Model
- 61.1%
- Book
- 51.2%
- Over 1.5 totalBasesSep 11 · projected 2.1lost(1)
- Model
- 60.9%
- Book
- 45.5%
- Over 1.5 totalBasesMay 30 · projected 2.1lost(0)
- Model
- 61.8%
- Book
- 51.2%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsMay 29 · projected 1.0won(1)
- Model
- 74.7%
- Book
- 71.4%
- Over 1.5 totalBasesMay 29 · projected 2.1lost(1)
- Model
- 61.8%
- Book
- 53.5%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsMay 27 · projected 0.9won(0)
- Model
- 86.2%
- Book
- 72.2%
- Over 1.5 totalBasesMay 27 · projected 1.9lost(0)
- Model
- 71.4%
- Book
- 53.5%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsMay 22 · projected 0.6won(0)
- Model
- 86.4%
- Book
- 71.4%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 16 · projected 0.6lost(3)
- Model
- 96.2%
- Book
- 59.2%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 15 · projected 0.6won(1)
- Model
- 96.2%
- Book
- 60.0%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 12 · projected 0.6lost(2)
- Model
- 96.1%
- Book
- 53.5%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 11 · projected 0.6lost(2)
- Model
- 96.1%
- Book
- 53.5%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 10 · projected 0.6lost(4)
- Model
- 96.0%
- Book
- 58.3%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 9 · projected 0.6won(0)
- Model
- 96.0%
- Book
- 60.0%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 7 · projected 0.6won(1)
- Model
- 97.0%
- Book
- 56.5%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
How has the model done on Aaron Judge's props?
Across the last 16 graded model lines on Aaron Judge, 6 won and 10 lost.
Every Aaron Judge line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).