EdgeGoat
Austin Riley
Atlanta Braves · #27 · 0 games logged
Model vs book today
Current lines the model prices for this player — including ones where the book's price is better than the model's number.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Austin Riley | Under 0.5 Batter BBPHI @ ATL | 78.2% | 77.8%−350 | +0.4% |
- Under 0.5 Batter BBPHI @ ATL+0.4%
- Model
- 78.2%
- Book
- 77.8%−350
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 Batter BB | Sep 29 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 86.8% | 72.2% | won(0) |
| Under 0.5 Batter BB | Sep 27 · projected 0.2 | 0.2 | 88.1% | 77.8% | lost(1) |
| Under 0.5 Batter BB | Sep 26 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 82.8% | 75.0% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 25 · projected 0.7 | 0.7 | 73.6% | 60.0% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 4 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 62.4% | 60.0% | won(1) |
| Under 0.5 runsScored | Aug 28 · projected 0.4 | 0.4 | 79.6% | 60.0% | void(0) |
| Under 0.5 Batter BB | Aug 20 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 87.7% | 72.2% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Aug 8 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 62.3% | 57.4% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | May 29 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 71.8% | 66.1% | lost(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 22 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 67.4% | 57.4% | lost(2) |
| Under 0.5 runsScored | May 22 · projected 0.4 | 0.4 | 59.9% | 54.5% | lost(1) |
| Under 0.5 rbis | May 22 · projected 0.4 | 0.4 | 65.4% | 64.9% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 hitsRunsRbis | May 22 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 50.6% | 46.5% | lost(2) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 17 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 98.3% | 63.6% | lost(4) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 13 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 98.3% | 64.9% | won(0) |
| Under 2.5 mlbHits | May 10 · projected 0.7 | 0.7 | 97.5% | 83.3% | won(1) |
| Under 3.5 totalBases | May 10 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 99.9% | 83.3% | won(1) |
| Under 3.5 hitsRunsRbis | May 10 · projected 1.4 | 1.4 | 96.9% | 80.0% | won(2) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 9 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 97.2% | 69.7% | won(1) |
| Under 0.5 runsScored | May 5 · projected 0.4 | 0.4 | 68.2% | 67.7% | won(0) |
- Under 0.5 Batter BBSep 29 · projected 0.3won(0)
- Model
- 86.8%
- Book
- 72.2%
- Under 0.5 Batter BBSep 27 · projected 0.2lost(1)
- Model
- 88.1%
- Book
- 77.8%
- Under 0.5 Batter BBSep 26 · projected 0.3won(0)
- Model
- 82.8%
- Book
- 75.0%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 25 · projected 0.7lost(0)
- Model
- 73.6%
- Book
- 60.0%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 4 · projected 1.0won(1)
- Model
- 62.4%
- Book
- 60.0%
- Under 0.5 runsScoredAug 28 · projected 0.4void(0)
- Model
- 79.6%
- Book
- 60.0%
- Under 0.5 Batter BBAug 20 · projected 0.3won(0)
- Model
- 87.7%
- Book
- 72.2%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsAug 8 · projected 1.0won(1)
- Model
- 62.3%
- Book
- 57.4%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsMay 29 · projected 0.8lost(0)
- Model
- 71.8%
- Book
- 66.1%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 22 · projected 1.1lost(2)
- Model
- 67.4%
- Book
- 57.4%
- Under 0.5 runsScoredMay 22 · projected 0.4lost(1)
- Model
- 59.9%
- Book
- 54.5%
- Under 0.5 rbisMay 22 · projected 0.4won(0)
- Model
- 65.4%
- Book
- 64.9%
- Under 1.5 hitsRunsRbisMay 22 · projected 0.6lost(2)
- Model
- 50.6%
- Book
- 46.5%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 17 · projected 0.6lost(4)
- Model
- 98.3%
- Book
- 63.6%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 13 · projected 0.6won(0)
- Model
- 98.3%
- Book
- 64.9%
- Under 2.5 mlbHitsMay 10 · projected 0.7won(1)
- Model
- 97.5%
- Book
- 83.3%
- Under 3.5 totalBasesMay 10 · projected 0.6won(1)
- Model
- 99.9%
- Book
- 83.3%
- Under 3.5 hitsRunsRbisMay 10 · projected 1.4won(2)
- Model
- 96.9%
- Book
- 80.0%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 9 · projected 0.6won(1)
- Model
- 97.2%
- Book
- 69.7%
- Under 0.5 runsScoredMay 5 · projected 0.4won(0)
- Model
- 68.2%
- Book
- 67.7%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
What does the EdgeGoat model say about Austin Riley today?
The strongest current line: Austin Riley under 0.5 batter bb (−350): model 78.2% vs book 77.8%, an edge of +0.4%.
How has the model done on Austin Riley's props?
Across the last 19 graded model lines on Austin Riley, 12 won and 7 lost.
Every Austin Riley line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).