EdgeGoat
Carson Kelly
Chicago Cubs · #15 · 0 games logged
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Sep 29 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 87.2% | 77.8% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 25 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 71.9% | 60.8% | lost(0) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Sep 25 · projected 0.2 | 0.2 | 97.5% | 77.8% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Aug 28 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 63.1% | 61.5% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 totalBases | Aug 2 · projected 1.8 | 1.8 | 66.1% | 54.5% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jul 26 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 64.0% | 62.3% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 totalBases | Jul 19 · projected 1.8 | 1.8 | 66.2% | 60.0% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 hitsRunsRbis | Jun 26 · projected 1.8 | 1.8 | 59.7% | 55.6% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jun 19 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 63.3% | 57.4% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | May 26 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 67.8% | 63.0% | won(1) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 14 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 96.9% | 66.7% | void(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 13 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 96.9% | 70.6% | won(1) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 7 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 98.2% | 71.4% | pending |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | May 7 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 74.8% | 64.3% | pending |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | May 5 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 75.2% | 69.7% | void(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 5 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 98.2% | 63.0% | void(0) |
- Under 0.5 batterWalksSep 29 · projected 0.3won(0)
- Model
- 87.2%
- Book
- 77.8%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 25 · projected 0.8lost(0)
- Model
- 71.9%
- Book
- 60.8%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksSep 25 · projected 0.2won(0)
- Model
- 97.5%
- Book
- 77.8%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsAug 28 · projected 0.8lost(0)
- Model
- 63.1%
- Book
- 61.5%
- Over 0.5 totalBasesAug 2 · projected 1.8lost(0)
- Model
- 66.1%
- Book
- 54.5%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJul 26 · projected 0.8lost(0)
- Model
- 64.0%
- Book
- 62.3%
- Over 0.5 totalBasesJul 19 · projected 1.8won(1)
- Model
- 66.2%
- Book
- 60.0%
- Over 0.5 hitsRunsRbisJun 26 · projected 1.8lost(0)
- Model
- 59.7%
- Book
- 55.6%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJun 19 · projected 0.8won(1)
- Model
- 63.3%
- Book
- 57.4%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsMay 26 · projected 0.9won(1)
- Model
- 67.8%
- Book
- 63.0%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 14 · projected 0.6void(0)
- Model
- 96.9%
- Book
- 66.7%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 13 · projected 0.6won(1)
- Model
- 96.9%
- Book
- 70.6%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 7 · projected 0.6pending
- Model
- 98.2%
- Book
- 71.4%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsMay 7 · projected 1.0pending
- Model
- 74.8%
- Book
- 64.3%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsMay 5 · projected 1.0void(0)
- Model
- 75.2%
- Book
- 69.7%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 5 · projected 0.6void(0)
- Model
- 98.2%
- Book
- 63.0%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
How has the model done on Carson Kelly's props?
Across the last 11 graded model lines on Carson Kelly, 6 won and 5 lost.
Every Carson Kelly line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).