Fernando Tatis Jr.

San Diego Padres · #23 · 0 games logged

Projection vs line history

Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.

Projection vs line history
Line	Date	Projection	Model	Book	Result
Over 1.5 totalBases	Sep 29 · projected 2.0	2.0	54.1%	51.2%	won(4)
Under 0.5 batterWalks	Sep 26 · projected 0.3	0.3	87.4%	76.5%	lost(1)
Over 1.5 totalBases	Sep 25 · projected 2.0	2.0	61.4%	51.2%	won(3)
Under 0.5 batterWalks	Sep 25 · projected 0.3	0.3	97.5%	78.9%	won(0)
Under 2.5 totalBases	Sep 11 · projected 1.4	1.4	72.8%	69.7%	lost(3)
Under 0.5 runsScored	Aug 24 · projected 0.4	0.4	74.6%	57.4%	won(0)
Under 0.5 rbis	Jul 6 · projected 0.4	0.4	76.3%	70.6%	won(0)
Under 0.5 batterWalks	Jul 6 · projected 0.3	0.3	83.6%	72.2%	won(0)
Under 1.5 mlbHits	Jul 1 · projected 0.8	0.8	70.6%	60.8%	won(0)
Under 0.5 rbis	Jun 23 · projected 0.4	0.4	78.3%	67.7%	lost(1)
Under 1.5 mlbHits	May 29 · projected 0.9	0.9	80.6%	71.4%	lost(2)
Under 0.5 runsScored	May 23 · projected 0.3	0.3	72.3%	56.5%	won(0)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 23 · projected 0.9	0.9	69.9%	62.3%	won(0)
Under 1.5 hitsRunsRbis	May 22 · projected 0.7	0.7	52.2%	51.2%	lost(2)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 22 · projected 0.9	0.9	69.9%	62.3%	won(1)
Under 0.5 runsScored	May 22 · projected 0.3	0.3	72.3%	55.6%	lost(1)
Over 0.5 mlbHits	May 16 · projected 0.7	0.7	72.3%	66.7%	lost(0)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 16 · projected 0.6	0.6	96.1%	64.3%	won(0)
Over 0.5 mlbHits	May 15 · projected 0.7	0.7	72.3%	66.7%	lost(0)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 14 · projected 0.6	0.6	96.0%	66.1%	won(0)

Over 1.5 totalBases
Sep 29 · projected 2.0
won(4)
Model
54.1%
Book
51.2%
Under 0.5 batterWalks
Sep 26 · projected 0.3
lost(1)
Model
87.4%
Book
76.5%
Over 1.5 totalBases
Sep 25 · projected 2.0
won(3)
Model
61.4%
Book
51.2%
Under 0.5 batterWalks
Sep 25 · projected 0.3
won(0)
Model
97.5%
Book
78.9%
Under 2.5 totalBases
Sep 11 · projected 1.4
lost(3)
Model
72.8%
Book
69.7%
Under 0.5 runsScored
Aug 24 · projected 0.4
won(0)
Model
74.6%
Book
57.4%
Under 0.5 rbis
Jul 6 · projected 0.4
won(0)
Model
76.3%
Book
70.6%
Under 0.5 batterWalks
Jul 6 · projected 0.3
won(0)
Model
83.6%
Book
72.2%
Under 1.5 mlbHits
Jul 1 · projected 0.8
won(0)
Model
70.6%
Book
60.8%
Under 0.5 rbis
Jun 23 · projected 0.4
lost(1)
Model
78.3%
Book
67.7%
Under 1.5 mlbHits
May 29 · projected 0.9
lost(2)
Model
80.6%
Book
71.4%
Under 0.5 runsScored
May 23 · projected 0.3
won(0)
Model
72.3%
Book
56.5%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 23 · projected 0.9
won(0)
Model
69.9%
Book
62.3%
Under 1.5 hitsRunsRbis
May 22 · projected 0.7
lost(2)
Model
52.2%
Book
51.2%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 22 · projected 0.9
won(1)
Model
69.9%
Book
62.3%
Under 0.5 runsScored
May 22 · projected 0.3
lost(1)
Model
72.3%
Book
55.6%
Over 0.5 mlbHits
May 16 · projected 0.7
lost(0)
Model
72.3%
Book
66.7%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 16 · projected 0.6
won(0)
Model
96.1%
Book
64.3%
Over 0.5 mlbHits
May 15 · projected 0.7
lost(0)
Model
72.3%
Book
66.7%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 14 · projected 0.6
won(0)
Model
96.0%
Book
66.1%

Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.

Frequently asked questions

How has the model done on Fernando Tatis Jr.'s props?

Across the last 20 graded model lines on Fernando Tatis Jr., 12 won and 8 lost.

Every Fernando Tatis Jr. line, priced

Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.

Open the model — free How the model works

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).