EdgeGoat
Francisco Alvarez
New York Mets · #4 · 0 games logged
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 26 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 62.3% | 60.8% | lost(0) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Sep 26 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 81.2% | 66.7% | lost(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 25 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 62.7% | 57.4% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 23 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 66.9% | 57.4% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 9 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 68.2% | 56.5% | void(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 6 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 65.4% | 56.5% | void(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Aug 29 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 65.6% | 54.5% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Aug 22 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 66.6% | 61.5% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Aug 7 · projected 0.7 | 0.7 | 68.6% | 57.4% | void(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jul 27 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 65.7% | 64.9% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jul 19 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 66.8% | 60.8% | void(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jul 12 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 68.6% | 61.5% | void(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jul 6 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 66.4% | 63.0% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | May 13 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 70.0% | 59.2% | void(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 13 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 98.1% | 72.2% | void(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 10 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 97.0% | 67.7% | pending |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 9 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 97.0% | 67.7% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 7 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 97.0% | 56.5% | won(1) |
| Under 0.5 runsScored | May 7 · projected 0.4 | 0.4 | 60.0% | 54.5% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | May 7 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 79.9% | 76.5% | won(1) |
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 26 · projected 0.8lost(0)
- Model
- 62.3%
- Book
- 60.8%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksSep 26 · projected 0.3lost(1)
- Model
- 81.2%
- Book
- 66.7%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 25 · projected 0.9lost(0)
- Model
- 62.7%
- Book
- 57.4%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 23 · projected 1.1won(1)
- Model
- 66.9%
- Book
- 57.4%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 9 · projected 0.8void(0)
- Model
- 68.2%
- Book
- 56.5%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 6 · projected 1.1void(0)
- Model
- 65.4%
- Book
- 56.5%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsAug 29 · projected 1.1won(1)
- Model
- 65.6%
- Book
- 54.5%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsAug 22 · projected 1.1won(1)
- Model
- 66.6%
- Book
- 61.5%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsAug 7 · projected 0.7void(0)
- Model
- 68.6%
- Book
- 57.4%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJul 27 · projected 1.1won(1)
- Model
- 65.7%
- Book
- 64.9%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJul 19 · projected 1.1void(0)
- Model
- 66.8%
- Book
- 60.8%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJul 12 · projected 0.8void(0)
- Model
- 68.6%
- Book
- 61.5%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJul 6 · projected 1.1won(1)
- Model
- 66.4%
- Book
- 63.0%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsMay 13 · projected 0.8void(0)
- Model
- 70.0%
- Book
- 59.2%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 13 · projected 0.6void(0)
- Model
- 98.1%
- Book
- 72.2%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 10 · projected 0.6pending
- Model
- 97.0%
- Book
- 67.7%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 9 · projected 0.6won(0)
- Model
- 97.0%
- Book
- 67.7%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 7 · projected 0.6won(1)
- Model
- 97.0%
- Book
- 56.5%
- Under 0.5 runsScoredMay 7 · projected 0.4won(0)
- Model
- 60.0%
- Book
- 54.5%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsMay 7 · projected 0.8won(1)
- Model
- 79.9%
- Book
- 76.5%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
How has the model done on Francisco Alvarez's props?
Across the last 12 graded model lines on Francisco Alvarez, 9 won and 3 lost.
Every Francisco Alvarez line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).