EdgeGoat
Ildemaro Vargas
Arizona Diamondbacks · #6 · 0 games logged
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 7 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 72.2% | 70.6% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Aug 28 · projected 1.3 | 1.3 | 71.4% | 64.3% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Aug 24 · projected 1.2 | 1.2 | 72.8% | 66.1% | won(1) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Aug 24 · projected 0.2 | 0.2 | 97.5% | 84.0% | won(0) |
| Over 1.5 totalBases | Jul 20 · projected 2.2 | 2.2 | 66.6% | 47.6% | lost(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jul 11 · projected 1.5 | 1.5 | 71.6% | 64.3% | lost(0) |
| Over 1.5 totalBases | Jul 11 · projected 2.3 | 2.3 | 67.5% | 34.5% | lost(0) |
| Over 1.5 totalBases | Jun 3 · projected 2.3 | 2.3 | 67.7% | 36.4% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jun 3 · projected 1.5 | 1.5 | 72.1% | 62.3% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jun 1 · projected 1.5 | 1.5 | 72.2% | 64.9% | lost(0) |
| Over 1.5 totalBases | Jun 1 · projected 2.3 | 2.3 | 67.9% | 37.7% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | May 31 · projected 1.6 | 1.6 | 72.0% | 65.5% | won(1) |
| Over 1.5 hitsRunsRbis | May 31 · projected 2.0 | 2.0 | 51.0% | 44.4% | lost(1) |
| Over 1.5 totalBases | May 31 · projected 2.4 | 2.4 | 68.5% | 37.0% | lost(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | May 29 · projected 1.6 | 1.6 | 72.1% | 69.2% | won(1) |
| Over 1.5 totalBases | May 26 · projected 2.8 | 2.8 | 97.6% | 40.0% | won(2) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 16 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 97.1% | 50.0% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | May 16 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 91.1% | 61.5% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | May 15 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 91.1% | 61.5% | lost(2) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 15 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 97.1% | 50.0% | lost(3) |
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 7 · projected 1.1won(1)
- Model
- 72.2%
- Book
- 70.6%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsAug 28 · projected 1.3won(1)
- Model
- 71.4%
- Book
- 64.3%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsAug 24 · projected 1.2won(1)
- Model
- 72.8%
- Book
- 66.1%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksAug 24 · projected 0.2won(0)
- Model
- 97.5%
- Book
- 84.0%
- Over 1.5 totalBasesJul 20 · projected 2.2lost(1)
- Model
- 66.6%
- Book
- 47.6%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJul 11 · projected 1.5lost(0)
- Model
- 71.6%
- Book
- 64.3%
- Over 1.5 totalBasesJul 11 · projected 2.3lost(0)
- Model
- 67.5%
- Book
- 34.5%
- Over 1.5 totalBasesJun 3 · projected 2.3lost(0)
- Model
- 67.7%
- Book
- 36.4%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJun 3 · projected 1.5lost(0)
- Model
- 72.1%
- Book
- 62.3%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJun 1 · projected 1.5lost(0)
- Model
- 72.2%
- Book
- 64.9%
- Over 1.5 totalBasesJun 1 · projected 2.3lost(0)
- Model
- 67.9%
- Book
- 37.7%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsMay 31 · projected 1.6won(1)
- Model
- 72.0%
- Book
- 65.5%
- Over 1.5 hitsRunsRbisMay 31 · projected 2.0lost(1)
- Model
- 51.0%
- Book
- 44.4%
- Over 1.5 totalBasesMay 31 · projected 2.4lost(1)
- Model
- 68.5%
- Book
- 37.0%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsMay 29 · projected 1.6won(1)
- Model
- 72.1%
- Book
- 69.2%
- Over 1.5 totalBasesMay 26 · projected 2.8won(2)
- Model
- 97.6%
- Book
- 40.0%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 16 · projected 0.6won(0)
- Model
- 97.1%
- Book
- 50.0%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsMay 16 · projected 1.1won(0)
- Model
- 91.1%
- Book
- 61.5%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsMay 15 · projected 1.1lost(2)
- Model
- 91.1%
- Book
- 61.5%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 15 · projected 0.6lost(3)
- Model
- 97.1%
- Book
- 50.0%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
How has the model done on Ildemaro Vargas's props?
Across the last 20 graded model lines on Ildemaro Vargas, 9 won and 11 lost.
Every Ildemaro Vargas line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).