EdgeGoat
Jackson Merrill
San Diego Padres · #3 · 0 games logged
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Sep 29 · projected 0.2 | 0.2 | 88.4% | 83.3% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 runsScored | Sep 26 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 48.5% | 43.5% | won(1) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Sep 26 · projected 0.2 | 0.2 | 88.3% | 81.8% | lost(1) |
| Over 1.5 totalBases | Sep 25 · projected 2.0 | 2.0 | 55.1% | 44.4% | lost(1) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Sep 25 · projected 0.2 | 0.2 | 90.4% | 82.6% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 25 · projected 1.2 | 1.2 | 70.4% | 67.7% | won(1) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Aug 28 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 84.0% | 81.0% | lost(1) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Aug 24 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 97.5% | 78.9% | won(0) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Jul 6 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 86.9% | 77.8% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | Jul 1 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 70.2% | 68.8% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | Jun 13 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 78.7% | 70.6% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jun 5 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 64.5% | 64.3% | lost(0) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | May 31 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 76.8% | 76.5% | lost(2) |
| Over 1.5 totalBases | May 26 · projected 1.9 | 1.9 | 47.5% | 40.0% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | May 26 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 70.3% | 63.6% | lost(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 16 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 96.1% | 63.0% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 14 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 96.0% | 67.7% | void(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 13 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 96.0% | 58.3% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 12 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 96.0% | 57.4% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 8 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 96.9% | 62.3% | won(1) |
- Under 0.5 batterWalksSep 29 · projected 0.2won(0)
- Model
- 88.4%
- Book
- 83.3%
- Over 0.5 runsScoredSep 26 · projected 0.6won(1)
- Model
- 48.5%
- Book
- 43.5%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksSep 26 · projected 0.2lost(1)
- Model
- 88.3%
- Book
- 81.8%
- Over 1.5 totalBasesSep 25 · projected 2.0lost(1)
- Model
- 55.1%
- Book
- 44.4%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksSep 25 · projected 0.2won(0)
- Model
- 90.4%
- Book
- 82.6%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 25 · projected 1.2won(1)
- Model
- 70.4%
- Book
- 67.7%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksAug 28 · projected 0.3lost(1)
- Model
- 84.0%
- Book
- 81.0%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksAug 24 · projected 0.3won(0)
- Model
- 97.5%
- Book
- 78.9%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksJul 6 · projected 0.3won(0)
- Model
- 86.9%
- Book
- 77.8%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsJul 1 · projected 0.8won(0)
- Model
- 70.2%
- Book
- 68.8%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsJun 13 · projected 1.1won(1)
- Model
- 78.7%
- Book
- 70.6%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJun 5 · projected 1.0lost(0)
- Model
- 64.5%
- Book
- 64.3%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsMay 31 · projected 0.9lost(2)
- Model
- 76.8%
- Book
- 76.5%
- Over 1.5 totalBasesMay 26 · projected 1.9lost(0)
- Model
- 47.5%
- Book
- 40.0%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsMay 26 · projected 1.1lost(0)
- Model
- 70.3%
- Book
- 63.6%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 16 · projected 0.6won(0)
- Model
- 96.1%
- Book
- 63.0%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 14 · projected 0.6void(0)
- Model
- 96.0%
- Book
- 67.7%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 13 · projected 0.6won(0)
- Model
- 96.0%
- Book
- 58.3%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 12 · projected 0.6won(0)
- Model
- 96.0%
- Book
- 57.4%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 8 · projected 0.6won(1)
- Model
- 96.9%
- Book
- 62.3%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
How has the model done on Jackson Merrill's props?
Across the last 19 graded model lines on Jackson Merrill, 12 won and 7 lost.
Every Jackson Merrill line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).