Jarren Duran

Boston Red Sox · #16 · 0 games logged

Model vs book today

Current lines the model prices for this player — including ones where the book's price is better than the model's number.

Model probability vs book probability
Player	Line	Model	Book	Edge
Jarren Duran	Under 0.5 RunsBOS @ NYY	81.8%	76.5%−325	+5.3%

Jarren Duran
Under 0.5 RunsBOS @ NYY
+5.3%
Model
81.8%
Book
76.5%−325

Model % vs the break-even % of the Hard Rock price. How to read thisFull model board in the app →

Projection vs line history

Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.

Projection vs line history
Line	Date	Projection	Model	Book	Result
Over 0.5 mlbHits	Sep 25 · projected 0.7	0.7	70.2%	57.4%	lost(0)
Under 0.5 Runs	Sep 25 · projected 0.3	0.3	87.7%	75.0%	won(0)
Over 0.5 mlbHits	Sep 25 · projected 0.8	0.8	70.2%	56.5%	won(1)
Over 0.5 mlbHits	Sep 19 · projected 0.9	0.9	58.6%	58.3%	won(1)
Under 0.5 batterWalks	Sep 15 · projected 0.3	0.3	92.4%	82.6%	won(0)
Over 0.5 mlbHits	Aug 28 · projected 0.9	0.9	59.0%	55.6%	lost(0)
Under 0.5 batterWalks	Aug 24 · projected 0.2	0.2	97.5%	81.0%	won(0)
Under 1.5 totalBases	Jun 17 · projected 1.1	1.1	80.9%	54.5%	won(0)
Under 1.5 mlbHits	May 18 · projected 0.6	0.6	87.8%	70.6%	won(0)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 18 · projected 0.6	0.6	96.1%	59.2%	won(0)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 17 · projected 0.6	0.6	96.0%	63.6%	lost(3)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 14 · projected 0.6	0.6	97.0%	56.5%	won(0)
Under 1.5 mlbHits	May 14 · projected 0.7	0.7	87.7%	73.3%	won(0)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 13 · projected 0.6	0.6	97.0%	63.6%	won(0)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 12 · projected 0.6	0.6	97.0%	64.3%	won(0)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 9 · projected 0.6	0.6	96.9%	61.5%	pending
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 8 · projected 0.6	0.6	96.9%	60.8%	won(1)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 7 · projected 0.6	0.6	96.9%	60.8%	lost(2)
Under 3.5 mlbHits	May 5 · projected 0.6	0.6	97.5%	80.0%	won(0)
Under 1.5 Runs	May 5 · projected 0.4	0.4	99.7%	90.5%	won(0)

Over 0.5 mlbHits
Sep 25 · projected 0.7
lost(0)
Model
70.2%
Book
57.4%
Under 0.5 Runs
Sep 25 · projected 0.3
won(0)
Model
87.7%
Book
75.0%
Over 0.5 mlbHits
Sep 25 · projected 0.8
won(1)
Model
70.2%
Book
56.5%
Over 0.5 mlbHits
Sep 19 · projected 0.9
won(1)
Model
58.6%
Book
58.3%
Under 0.5 batterWalks
Sep 15 · projected 0.3
won(0)
Model
92.4%
Book
82.6%
Over 0.5 mlbHits
Aug 28 · projected 0.9
lost(0)
Model
59.0%
Book
55.6%
Under 0.5 batterWalks
Aug 24 · projected 0.2
won(0)
Model
97.5%
Book
81.0%
Under 1.5 totalBases
Jun 17 · projected 1.1
won(0)
Model
80.9%
Book
54.5%
Under 1.5 mlbHits
May 18 · projected 0.6
won(0)
Model
87.8%
Book
70.6%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 18 · projected 0.6
won(0)
Model
96.1%
Book
59.2%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 17 · projected 0.6
lost(3)
Model
96.0%
Book
63.6%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 14 · projected 0.6
won(0)
Model
97.0%
Book
56.5%
Under 1.5 mlbHits
May 14 · projected 0.7
won(0)
Model
87.7%
Book
73.3%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 13 · projected 0.6
won(0)
Model
97.0%
Book
63.6%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 12 · projected 0.6
won(0)
Model
97.0%
Book
64.3%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 9 · projected 0.6
pending
Model
96.9%
Book
61.5%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 8 · projected 0.6
won(1)
Model
96.9%
Book
60.8%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 7 · projected 0.6
lost(2)
Model
96.9%
Book
60.8%
Under 3.5 mlbHits
May 5 · projected 0.6
won(0)
Model
97.5%
Book
80.0%
Under 1.5 Runs
May 5 · projected 0.4
won(0)
Model
99.7%
Book
90.5%

Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.

Frequently asked questions

What does the EdgeGoat model say about Jarren Duran today?

The strongest current line: Jarren Duran under 0.5 runs (−325): model 81.8% vs book 76.5%, an edge of +5.3%.

How has the model done on Jarren Duran's props?

Across the last 19 graded model lines on Jarren Duran, 15 won and 4 lost.

Every Jarren Duran line, priced

Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.

Open the model — free How the model works

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).