EdgeGoat
Josh Naylor
Seattle Mariners · #12 · 0 games logged
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 27 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 63.1% | 63.0% | won(1) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Sep 27 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 87.2% | 81.8% | won(0) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Sep 26 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 87.4% | 78.9% | lost(1) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Sep 25 · projected 0.2 | 0.2 | 89.0% | 83.3% | won(0) |
| Under 0.5 runsScored | Aug 28 · projected 0.4 | 0.4 | 75.9% | 69.2% | won(0) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Aug 20 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 91.6% | 81.0% | won(0) |
| Under 0.5 runsScored | Aug 20 · projected 0.4 | 0.4 | 71.9% | 67.7% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 totalBases | Jul 19 · projected 1.5 | 1.5 | 66.3% | 61.5% | won(1) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | Jun 12 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 79.9% | 70.6% | won(1) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | May 26 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 90.6% | 70.6% | lost(2) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | May 23 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 76.9% | 66.7% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | May 22 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 76.9% | 75.0% | void(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 16 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 98.3% | 63.0% | lost(2) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 13 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 97.2% | 62.3% | won(1) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 12 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 97.1% | 63.0% | won(1) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 9 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 97.1% | 62.3% | won(1) |
| Under 0.5 runsScored | May 5 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 100.0% | 63.0% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 5 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 98.2% | 63.6% | lost(2) |
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 27 · projected 0.9won(1)
- Model
- 63.1%
- Book
- 63.0%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksSep 27 · projected 0.3won(0)
- Model
- 87.2%
- Book
- 81.8%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksSep 26 · projected 0.3lost(1)
- Model
- 87.4%
- Book
- 78.9%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksSep 25 · projected 0.2won(0)
- Model
- 89.0%
- Book
- 83.3%
- Under 0.5 runsScoredAug 28 · projected 0.4won(0)
- Model
- 75.9%
- Book
- 69.2%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksAug 20 · projected 0.3won(0)
- Model
- 91.6%
- Book
- 81.0%
- Under 0.5 runsScoredAug 20 · projected 0.4won(0)
- Model
- 71.9%
- Book
- 67.7%
- Over 0.5 totalBasesJul 19 · projected 1.5won(1)
- Model
- 66.3%
- Book
- 61.5%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsJun 12 · projected 0.8won(1)
- Model
- 79.9%
- Book
- 70.6%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsMay 26 · projected 1.0lost(2)
- Model
- 90.6%
- Book
- 70.6%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsMay 23 · projected 0.8won(0)
- Model
- 76.9%
- Book
- 66.7%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsMay 22 · projected 0.8void(0)
- Model
- 76.9%
- Book
- 75.0%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 16 · projected 0.6lost(2)
- Model
- 98.3%
- Book
- 63.0%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 13 · projected 0.6won(1)
- Model
- 97.2%
- Book
- 62.3%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 12 · projected 0.6won(1)
- Model
- 97.1%
- Book
- 63.0%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 9 · projected 0.6won(1)
- Model
- 97.1%
- Book
- 62.3%
- Under 0.5 runsScoredMay 5 · projected 0.3won(0)
- Model
- 100.0%
- Book
- 63.0%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 5 · projected 0.6lost(2)
- Model
- 98.2%
- Book
- 63.6%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
How has the model done on Josh Naylor's props?
Across the last 17 graded model lines on Josh Naylor, 13 won and 4 lost.
Every Josh Naylor line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).