Justin Crawford

Philadelphia Phillies · #2 · 0 games logged

Model vs book today

Current lines the model prices for this player — including ones where the book's price is better than the model's number.

Model probability vs book probability
Player	Line	Model	Book	Edge
Justin Crawford	Over 0.5 HitsPHI @ ATL	59.2%	58.3%−140	+0.8%

Justin Crawford
Over 0.5 HitsPHI @ ATL
+0.8%
Model
59.2%
Book
58.3%−140

Model % vs the break-even % of the Hard Rock price. How to read thisFull model board in the app →

Projection vs line history

Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.

Projection vs line history
Line	Date	Projection	Model	Book	Result
Over 0.5 Hits	Sep 27 · projected 1.1	1.1	66.6%	60.0%	won(1)
Under 0.5 batterWalks	Sep 25 · projected 0.2	0.2	97.5%	83.3%	won(0)
Over 0.5 Hits	Sep 25 · projected 0.8	0.8	65.8%	63.6%	won(1)
Over 0.5 Hits	Sep 22 · projected 1.1	1.1	67.7%	55.6%	lost(0)
Over 0.5 Hits	Sep 12 · projected 1.2	1.2	68.4%	56.5%	won(1)
Over 0.5 Hits	Sep 6 · projected 1.1	1.1	67.8%	60.8%	lost(0)
Under 0.5 runsScored	Aug 24 · projected 0.4	0.4	76.7%	76.5%	won(0)
Over 0.5 Hits	Aug 24 · projected 0.8	0.8	66.3%	53.5%	lost(0)
Over 0.5 Hits	Aug 16 · projected 1.1	1.1	68.3%	60.8%	pending
Over 0.5 Hits	Jul 24 · projected 1.1	1.1	67.0%	58.3%	lost(0)
Over 0.5 Hits	Jul 19 · projected 1.1	1.1	67.5%	60.0%	lost(0)
Over 0.5 totalBases	Jul 19 · projected 1.5	1.5	67.1%	62.3%	lost(0)
Over 0.5 Hits	Jun 12 · projected 1.1	1.1	67.2%	52.4%	lost(0)
Over 0.5 Hits	Jun 2 · projected 1.1	1.1	67.9%	63.0%	won(1)
Over 0.5 Hits	May 31 · projected 0.8	0.8	66.8%	57.4%	won(1)
Over 0.5 Hits	May 16 · projected 0.8	0.8	81.8%	64.3%	lost(0)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 16 · projected 0.6	0.6	96.0%	71.4%	won(0)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 14 · projected 0.6	0.6	96.0%	73.3%	won(0)
Over 0.5 Hits	May 14 · projected 0.8	0.8	82.1%	62.3%	lost(0)
Over 0.5 Hits	May 13 · projected 0.8	0.8	82.1%	65.5%	won(1)

Over 0.5 Hits
Sep 27 · projected 1.1
won(1)
Model
66.6%
Book
60.0%
Under 0.5 batterWalks
Sep 25 · projected 0.2
won(0)
Model
97.5%
Book
83.3%
Over 0.5 Hits
Sep 25 · projected 0.8
won(1)
Model
65.8%
Book
63.6%
Over 0.5 Hits
Sep 22 · projected 1.1
lost(0)
Model
67.7%
Book
55.6%
Over 0.5 Hits
Sep 12 · projected 1.2
won(1)
Model
68.4%
Book
56.5%
Over 0.5 Hits
Sep 6 · projected 1.1
lost(0)
Model
67.8%
Book
60.8%
Under 0.5 runsScored
Aug 24 · projected 0.4
won(0)
Model
76.7%
Book
76.5%
Over 0.5 Hits
Aug 24 · projected 0.8
lost(0)
Model
66.3%
Book
53.5%
Over 0.5 Hits
Aug 16 · projected 1.1
pending
Model
68.3%
Book
60.8%
Over 0.5 Hits
Jul 24 · projected 1.1
lost(0)
Model
67.0%
Book
58.3%
Over 0.5 Hits
Jul 19 · projected 1.1
lost(0)
Model
67.5%
Book
60.0%
Over 0.5 totalBases
Jul 19 · projected 1.5
lost(0)
Model
67.1%
Book
62.3%
Over 0.5 Hits
Jun 12 · projected 1.1
lost(0)
Model
67.2%
Book
52.4%
Over 0.5 Hits
Jun 2 · projected 1.1
won(1)
Model
67.9%
Book
63.0%
Over 0.5 Hits
May 31 · projected 0.8
won(1)
Model
66.8%
Book
57.4%
Over 0.5 Hits
May 16 · projected 0.8
lost(0)
Model
81.8%
Book
64.3%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 16 · projected 0.6
won(0)
Model
96.0%
Book
71.4%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 14 · projected 0.6
won(0)
Model
96.0%
Book
73.3%
Over 0.5 Hits
May 14 · projected 0.8
lost(0)
Model
82.1%
Book
62.3%
Over 0.5 Hits
May 13 · projected 0.8
won(1)
Model
82.1%
Book
65.5%

Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.

Frequently asked questions

What does the EdgeGoat model say about Justin Crawford today?

The strongest current line: Justin Crawford over 0.5 hits (−140): model 59.2% vs book 58.3%, an edge of +0.8%.

How has the model done on Justin Crawford's props?

Across the last 19 graded model lines on Justin Crawford, 10 won and 9 lost.

Every Justin Crawford line, priced

Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.

Open the model — free How the model works

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).