EdgeGoat
Luis Arraez
Philadelphia Phillies · #4 · 0 games logged
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 24 · projected 1.4 | 1.4 | 75.0% | 73.3% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 22 · projected 1.4 | 1.4 | 75.0% | 75.0% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 12 · projected 1.4 | 1.4 | 75.3% | 75.0% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 4 · projected 1.4 | 1.4 | 74.8% | 68.8% | won(1) |
| Under 0.5 runsScored | Aug 24 · projected 0.4 | 0.4 | 85.3% | 71.4% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jul 19 · projected 1.4 | 1.4 | 75.0% | 72.2% | won(1) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Jul 6 · projected 0.2 | 0.2 | 97.5% | 83.3% | lost(1) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | Jul 6 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 68.7% | 67.7% | won(1) |
| Under 0.5 rbis | Jul 6 · projected 0.4 | 0.4 | 79.2% | 78.9% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jun 28 · projected 1.3 | 1.3 | 74.0% | 69.2% | won(1) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | Jun 20 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 72.3% | 72.2% | won(1) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | Jun 12 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 72.0% | 70.6% | lost(2) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | May 31 · projected 1.2 | 1.2 | 66.7% | 63.0% | won(1) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | May 29 · projected 1.2 | 1.2 | 66.8% | 55.6% | lost(2) |
| Over 1.5 totalBases | May 26 · projected 2.0 | 2.0 | 86.1% | 45.5% | lost(0) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | May 22 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 78.2% | 69.2% | lost(2) |
| Under 1.5 runsScored | May 17 · projected 0.4 | 0.4 | 98.7% | 94.1% | lost(2) |
| Under 3.5 mlbHits | May 17 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 99.9% | 77.8% | won(3) |
| Under 1.5 homeRuns | May 17 · projected 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | 99.8% | won(1) |
| Under 7.5 totalBases | May 17 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 100.0% | 77.8% | won(6) |
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 24 · projected 1.4lost(0)
- Model
- 75.0%
- Book
- 73.3%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 22 · projected 1.4won(1)
- Model
- 75.0%
- Book
- 75.0%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 12 · projected 1.4lost(0)
- Model
- 75.3%
- Book
- 75.0%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 4 · projected 1.4won(1)
- Model
- 74.8%
- Book
- 68.8%
- Under 0.5 runsScoredAug 24 · projected 0.4won(0)
- Model
- 85.3%
- Book
- 71.4%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJul 19 · projected 1.4won(1)
- Model
- 75.0%
- Book
- 72.2%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksJul 6 · projected 0.2lost(1)
- Model
- 97.5%
- Book
- 83.3%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsJul 6 · projected 1.1won(1)
- Model
- 68.7%
- Book
- 67.7%
- Under 0.5 rbisJul 6 · projected 0.4won(0)
- Model
- 79.2%
- Book
- 78.9%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJun 28 · projected 1.3won(1)
- Model
- 74.0%
- Book
- 69.2%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsJun 20 · projected 1.0won(1)
- Model
- 72.3%
- Book
- 72.2%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsJun 12 · projected 1.0lost(2)
- Model
- 72.0%
- Book
- 70.6%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsMay 31 · projected 1.2won(1)
- Model
- 66.7%
- Book
- 63.0%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsMay 29 · projected 1.2lost(2)
- Model
- 66.8%
- Book
- 55.6%
- Over 1.5 totalBasesMay 26 · projected 2.0lost(0)
- Model
- 86.1%
- Book
- 45.5%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsMay 22 · projected 1.1lost(2)
- Model
- 78.2%
- Book
- 69.2%
- Under 1.5 runsScoredMay 17 · projected 0.4lost(2)
- Model
- 98.7%
- Book
- 94.1%
- Under 3.5 mlbHitsMay 17 · projected 1.0won(3)
- Model
- 99.9%
- Book
- 77.8%
- Under 1.5 homeRunsMay 17 · projected 0.0won(1)
- Model
- 100.0%
- Book
- 99.8%
- Under 7.5 totalBasesMay 17 · projected 0.6won(6)
- Model
- 100.0%
- Book
- 77.8%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
How has the model done on Luis Arraez's props?
Across the last 20 graded model lines on Luis Arraez, 12 won and 8 lost.
Every Luis Arraez line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).