EdgeGoat
Matt Chapman
San Francisco Giants · #26 · 0 games logged
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jun 28 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 64.8% | 62.3% | won(1) |
| Under 1.5 rbis | Jun 26 · projected 0.5 | 0.5 | 94.6% | 94.1% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | May 31 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 79.0% | 75.0% | won(1) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | May 29 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 79.0% | 69.7% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | May 26 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 70.8% | 63.0% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | May 22 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 58.1% | 56.5% | won(1) |
| Under 0.5 stolenBases | May 17 · projected 0.0 | 0.0 | 99.9% | 97.6% | won(0) |
| Under 2.5 runsScored | May 17 · projected 0.4 | 0.4 | 99.9% | 99.3% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | May 17 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 67.3% | 33.3% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 hitsRunsRbis | May 17 · projected 1.5 | 1.5 | 81.6% | 38.5% | won(2) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 17 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 97.2% | 90.5% | lost(2) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | May 17 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 93.7% | 86.7% | lost(1) |
| Under 0.5 homeRuns | May 17 · projected 0.1 | 0.1 | 100.0% | 97.6% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | May 13 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 67.6% | 54.5% | won(1) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 13 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 97.2% | 76.5% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | May 12 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 67.4% | 58.3% | lost(0) |
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJun 28 · projected 1.0won(1)
- Model
- 64.8%
- Book
- 62.3%
- Under 1.5 rbisJun 26 · projected 0.5won(0)
- Model
- 94.6%
- Book
- 94.1%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsMay 31 · projected 0.9won(1)
- Model
- 79.0%
- Book
- 75.0%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsMay 29 · projected 0.9won(1)
- Model
- 79.0%
- Book
- 69.7%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsMay 26 · projected 1.1lost(0)
- Model
- 70.8%
- Book
- 63.0%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsMay 22 · projected 0.8won(1)
- Model
- 58.1%
- Book
- 56.5%
- Under 0.5 stolenBasesMay 17 · projected 0.0won(0)
- Model
- 99.9%
- Book
- 97.6%
- Under 2.5 runsScoredMay 17 · projected 0.4won(1)
- Model
- 99.9%
- Book
- 99.3%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsMay 17 · projected 0.8won(1)
- Model
- 67.3%
- Book
- 33.3%
- Over 0.5 hitsRunsRbisMay 17 · projected 1.5won(2)
- Model
- 81.6%
- Book
- 38.5%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 17 · projected 0.6lost(2)
- Model
- 97.2%
- Book
- 90.5%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksMay 17 · projected 0.3lost(1)
- Model
- 93.7%
- Book
- 86.7%
- Under 0.5 homeRunsMay 17 · projected 0.1won(0)
- Model
- 100.0%
- Book
- 97.6%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsMay 13 · projected 0.8won(1)
- Model
- 67.6%
- Book
- 54.5%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 13 · projected 0.6won(1)
- Model
- 97.2%
- Book
- 76.5%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsMay 12 · projected 0.8lost(0)
- Model
- 67.4%
- Book
- 58.3%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
How has the model done on Matt Chapman's props?
Across the last 16 graded model lines on Matt Chapman, 12 won and 4 lost.
Every Matt Chapman line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).