EdgeGoat
Nathan Church
St. Louis Cardinals · #27 · 0 games logged
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Sep 27 · projected 0.2 | 0.2 | 87.6% | 83.3% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 27 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 58.2% | 55.6% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 20 · projected 0.7 | 0.7 | 68.8% | 61.5% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 16 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 67.3% | 63.0% | won(1) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Sep 16 · projected 0.2 | 0.2 | 97.5% | 81.8% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jul 11 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 60.3% | 60.0% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jul 6 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 59.9% | 58.3% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jul 1 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 60.5% | 60.0% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jun 15 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 60.5% | 56.5% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jun 12 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 60.6% | 59.2% | lost(0) |
| Under 0.5 homeRuns | May 14 · projected 0.1 | 0.1 | 100.0% | 99.3% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 14 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 95.9% | 92.3% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 hitsRunsRbis | May 14 · projected 1.7 | 1.7 | 83.1% | 36.4% | lost(0) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | May 14 · projected 0.2 | 0.2 | 97.5% | 91.7% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | May 14 · projected 0.7 | 0.7 | 39.1% | 30.8% | lost(0) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | May 5 · projected 0.7 | 0.7 | 93.3% | 92.9% | pending |
| Under 2.5 homeRuns | May 5 · projected 0.1 | 0.1 | 100.0% | 100.0% | pending |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 5 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 96.9% | 77.8% | pending |
| Over 0.5 hitsRunsRbis | May 5 · projected 1.7 | 1.7 | 84.2% | 63.0% | pending |
- Under 0.5 batterWalksSep 27 · projected 0.2won(0)
- Model
- 87.6%
- Book
- 83.3%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 27 · projected 0.8lost(0)
- Model
- 58.2%
- Book
- 55.6%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 20 · projected 0.7lost(0)
- Model
- 68.8%
- Book
- 61.5%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 16 · projected 0.8won(1)
- Model
- 67.3%
- Book
- 63.0%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksSep 16 · projected 0.2won(0)
- Model
- 97.5%
- Book
- 81.8%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJul 11 · projected 0.9lost(0)
- Model
- 60.3%
- Book
- 60.0%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJul 6 · projected 0.9won(1)
- Model
- 59.9%
- Book
- 58.3%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJul 1 · projected 0.9lost(0)
- Model
- 60.5%
- Book
- 60.0%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJun 15 · projected 0.9lost(0)
- Model
- 60.5%
- Book
- 56.5%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJun 12 · projected 0.9lost(0)
- Model
- 60.6%
- Book
- 59.2%
- Under 0.5 homeRunsMay 14 · projected 0.1won(0)
- Model
- 100.0%
- Book
- 99.3%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 14 · projected 0.6won(0)
- Model
- 95.9%
- Book
- 92.3%
- Over 0.5 hitsRunsRbisMay 14 · projected 1.7lost(0)
- Model
- 83.1%
- Book
- 36.4%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksMay 14 · projected 0.2won(0)
- Model
- 97.5%
- Book
- 91.7%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsMay 14 · projected 0.7lost(0)
- Model
- 39.1%
- Book
- 30.8%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsMay 5 · projected 0.7pending
- Model
- 93.3%
- Book
- 92.9%
- Under 2.5 homeRunsMay 5 · projected 0.1pending
- Model
- 100.0%
- Book
- 100.0%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 5 · projected 0.6pending
- Model
- 96.9%
- Book
- 77.8%
- Over 0.5 hitsRunsRbisMay 5 · projected 1.7pending
- Model
- 84.2%
- Book
- 63.0%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
How has the model done on Nathan Church's props?
Across the last 15 graded model lines on Nathan Church, 7 won and 8 lost.
Every Nathan Church line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).