EdgeGoat
Nolan Arenado
Arizona Diamondbacks · #28 · 0 games logged
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 27 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 65.8% | 65.5% | won(1) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Sep 27 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 83.4% | 75.0% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 26 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 66.7% | 60.8% | won(1) |
| Over 1.5 totalBases | Sep 26 · projected 1.9 | 1.9 | 51.5% | 37.0% | lost(1) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Sep 26 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 86.4% | 75.0% | lost(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 25 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 66.2% | 60.8% | won(1) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Sep 25 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 84.1% | 78.9% | lost(1) |
| Over 1.5 totalBases | Sep 25 · projected 1.9 | 1.9 | 60.2% | 37.0% | won(4) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 18 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 66.7% | 63.0% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 15 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 70.9% | 64.9% | won(1) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Sep 13 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 81.9% | 80.0% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 13 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 66.7% | 66.1% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 12 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 66.7% | 64.9% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 9 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 70.6% | 69.7% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 7 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 70.6% | 67.7% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Sep 6 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 67.4% | 60.0% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Aug 24 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 70.7% | 64.3% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 totalBases | Aug 10 · projected 1.6 | 1.6 | 69.9% | 67.7% | won(4) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Aug 10 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 65.4% | 64.9% | won(1) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jul 11 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 68.6% | 58.3% | won(1) |
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 27 · projected 1.0won(1)
- Model
- 65.8%
- Book
- 65.5%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksSep 27 · projected 0.3won(0)
- Model
- 83.4%
- Book
- 75.0%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 26 · projected 1.1won(1)
- Model
- 66.7%
- Book
- 60.8%
- Over 1.5 totalBasesSep 26 · projected 1.9lost(1)
- Model
- 51.5%
- Book
- 37.0%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksSep 26 · projected 0.3lost(1)
- Model
- 86.4%
- Book
- 75.0%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 25 · projected 1.1won(1)
- Model
- 66.2%
- Book
- 60.8%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksSep 25 · projected 0.3lost(1)
- Model
- 84.1%
- Book
- 78.9%
- Over 1.5 totalBasesSep 25 · projected 1.9won(4)
- Model
- 60.2%
- Book
- 37.0%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 18 · projected 1.1won(1)
- Model
- 66.7%
- Book
- 63.0%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 15 · projected 0.9won(1)
- Model
- 70.9%
- Book
- 64.9%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksSep 13 · projected 0.3won(0)
- Model
- 81.9%
- Book
- 80.0%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 13 · projected 1.1won(1)
- Model
- 66.7%
- Book
- 66.1%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 12 · projected 1.1lost(0)
- Model
- 66.7%
- Book
- 64.9%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 9 · projected 0.8won(1)
- Model
- 70.6%
- Book
- 69.7%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 7 · projected 0.8won(1)
- Model
- 70.6%
- Book
- 67.7%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsSep 6 · projected 1.1won(1)
- Model
- 67.4%
- Book
- 60.0%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsAug 24 · projected 0.9lost(0)
- Model
- 70.7%
- Book
- 64.3%
- Over 0.5 totalBasesAug 10 · projected 1.6won(4)
- Model
- 69.9%
- Book
- 67.7%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsAug 10 · projected 1.1won(1)
- Model
- 65.4%
- Book
- 64.9%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJul 11 · projected 1.1won(1)
- Model
- 68.6%
- Book
- 58.3%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
How has the model done on Nolan Arenado's props?
Across the last 20 graded model lines on Nolan Arenado, 15 won and 5 lost.
Every Nolan Arenado line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).