EdgeGoat
Willi Castro
Colorado Rockies · #3 · 0 games logged
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Aug 28 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 64.1% | 63.6% | won(1) |
| Under 0.5 batterWalks | Aug 24 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 94.7% | 73.3% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Aug 14 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 63.2% | 62.3% | lost(0) |
| Over 0.5 mlbHits | Jun 1 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 62.9% | 59.2% | lost(0) |
| Under 1.5 hitsRunsRbis | May 23 · projected 0.7 | 0.7 | 57.2% | 55.6% | void(0) |
| Over 0.5 runsScored | May 23 · projected 0.7 | 0.7 | 45.9% | 42.6% | void(0) |
| Over 1.5 hitsRunsRbis | May 19 · projected 2.4 | 2.4 | 72.4% | 54.5% | lost(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 16 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 98.2% | 62.3% | lost(2) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 15 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 98.2% | 62.3% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 13 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 97.0% | 76.5% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 mlbHits | May 5 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 94.3% | 85.7% | pending |
| Under 1.5 totalBases | May 5 · projected 0.6 | 0.6 | 98.3% | 85.7% | pending |
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsAug 28 · projected 1.0won(1)
- Model
- 64.1%
- Book
- 63.6%
- Under 0.5 batterWalksAug 24 · projected 0.3won(0)
- Model
- 94.7%
- Book
- 73.3%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsAug 14 · projected 1.0lost(0)
- Model
- 63.2%
- Book
- 62.3%
- Over 0.5 mlbHitsJun 1 · projected 1.0lost(0)
- Model
- 62.9%
- Book
- 59.2%
- Under 1.5 hitsRunsRbisMay 23 · projected 0.7void(0)
- Model
- 57.2%
- Book
- 55.6%
- Over 0.5 runsScoredMay 23 · projected 0.7void(0)
- Model
- 45.9%
- Book
- 42.6%
- Over 1.5 hitsRunsRbisMay 19 · projected 2.4lost(0)
- Model
- 72.4%
- Book
- 54.5%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 16 · projected 0.6lost(2)
- Model
- 98.2%
- Book
- 62.3%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 15 · projected 0.6won(0)
- Model
- 98.2%
- Book
- 62.3%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 13 · projected 0.6won(0)
- Model
- 97.0%
- Book
- 76.5%
- Under 1.5 mlbHitsMay 5 · projected 0.8pending
- Model
- 94.3%
- Book
- 85.7%
- Under 1.5 totalBasesMay 5 · projected 0.6pending
- Model
- 98.3%
- Book
- 85.7%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
How has the model done on Willi Castro's props?
Across the last 8 graded model lines on Willi Castro, 4 won and 4 lost.
Every Willi Castro line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).