Willson Contreras

Boston Red Sox · #40 · 0 games logged

Model vs book today

Current lines the model prices for this player — including ones where the book's price is better than the model's number.

Model probability vs book probability
Player	Line	Model	Book	Edge
Willson Contreras	Under 0.5 Batter BBBOS @ NYY	71.1%	66.7%−200	+4.5%

Willson Contreras
Under 0.5 Batter BBBOS @ NYY
+4.5%
Model
71.1%
Book
66.7%−200

Model % vs the break-even % of the Hard Rock price. How to read thisFull model board in the app →

Projection vs line history

Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.

Projection vs line history
Line	Date	Projection	Model	Book	Result
Under 0.5 Batter BB	Sep 29 · projected 0.4	0.4	79.8%	75.0%	won(0)
Under 0.5 Batter BB	Sep 27 · projected 0.3	0.3	84.0%	68.8%	won(0)
Over 0.5 mlbHits	Sep 24 · projected 1.0	1.0	62.5%	60.0%	void(0)
Over 0.5 mlbHits	Aug 29 · projected 1.0	1.0	62.5%	61.5%	won(1)
Over 0.5 mlbHits	Aug 29 · projected 1.0	1.0	62.5%	61.5%	lost(0)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 18 · projected 0.6	0.6	97.2%	59.2%	lost(4)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 17 · projected 0.6	0.6	97.2%	64.3%	lost(2)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 14 · projected 0.6	0.6	98.3%	61.5%	lost(2)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 9 · projected 0.6	0.6	98.2%	60.0%	pending
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 8 · projected 0.6	0.6	98.2%	62.3%	won(0)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 7 · projected 0.6	0.6	98.2%	61.5%	won(1)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 6 · projected 0.6	0.6	97.1%	63.0%	won(0)
Over 0.5 mlbHits	May 5 · projected 0.7	0.7	48.7%	28.6%	won(1)
Under 0.5 stolenBases	May 5 · projected 0.0	0.0	99.9%	95.7%	won(0)
Over 0.5 hitsRunsRbis	May 5 · projected 1.6	1.6	81.5%	33.3%	won(1)
Under 1.5 totalBases	May 5 · projected 0.6	0.6	97.1%	93.3%	lost(4)
Under 0.5 homeRuns	May 5 · projected 0.1	0.1	100.0%	99.5%	lost(1)
Under 1.5 rbis	May 5 · projected 0.4	0.4	98.1%	96.2%	won(1)

Under 0.5 Batter BB
Sep 29 · projected 0.4
won(0)
Model
79.8%
Book
75.0%
Under 0.5 Batter BB
Sep 27 · projected 0.3
won(0)
Model
84.0%
Book
68.8%
Over 0.5 mlbHits
Sep 24 · projected 1.0
void(0)
Model
62.5%
Book
60.0%
Over 0.5 mlbHits
Aug 29 · projected 1.0
won(1)
Model
62.5%
Book
61.5%
Over 0.5 mlbHits
Aug 29 · projected 1.0
lost(0)
Model
62.5%
Book
61.5%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 18 · projected 0.6
lost(4)
Model
97.2%
Book
59.2%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 17 · projected 0.6
lost(2)
Model
97.2%
Book
64.3%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 14 · projected 0.6
lost(2)
Model
98.3%
Book
61.5%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 9 · projected 0.6
pending
Model
98.2%
Book
60.0%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 8 · projected 0.6
won(0)
Model
98.2%
Book
62.3%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 7 · projected 0.6
won(1)
Model
98.2%
Book
61.5%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 6 · projected 0.6
won(0)
Model
97.1%
Book
63.0%
Over 0.5 mlbHits
May 5 · projected 0.7
won(1)
Model
48.7%
Book
28.6%
Under 0.5 stolenBases
May 5 · projected 0.0
won(0)
Model
99.9%
Book
95.7%
Over 0.5 hitsRunsRbis
May 5 · projected 1.6
won(1)
Model
81.5%
Book
33.3%
Under 1.5 totalBases
May 5 · projected 0.6
lost(4)
Model
97.1%
Book
93.3%
Under 0.5 homeRuns
May 5 · projected 0.1
lost(1)
Model
100.0%
Book
99.5%
Under 1.5 rbis
May 5 · projected 0.4
won(1)
Model
98.1%
Book
96.2%

Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.

Frequently asked questions

What does the EdgeGoat model say about Willson Contreras today?

The strongest current line: Willson Contreras under 0.5 batter bb (−200): model 71.1% vs book 66.7%, an edge of +4.5%.

How has the model done on Willson Contreras's props?

Across the last 16 graded model lines on Willson Contreras, 10 won and 6 lost.

Every Willson Contreras line, priced

Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.

Open the model — free How the model works

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).