EdgeGoat
Chet Holmgren
Oklahoma City Thunder · #7 · 0 games logged
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 11.5 rebounds | May 30 · projected 6.6 | 6.6 | 99.0% | 86.7% | won(4) |
| Over 0.5 assists | May 30 · projected 1.3 | 1.3 | 76.0% | 73.3% | lost(0) |
| Under 2.5 threePointersMade | May 30 · projected 1.3 | 1.3 | 100.0% | 90.0% | won(0) |
| Under 15.5 points | May 30 · projected 13.8 | 13.8 | 69.1% | 64.9% | won(4) |
| Under 6.5 rebounds | May 28 · projected 5.5 | 5.5 | 43.6% | 36.4% | lost(7) |
| Under 15.5 points | May 28 · projected 12.1 | 12.1 | 70.9% | 57.4% | won(10) |
| Over 1.5 assists | May 28 · projected 1.9 | 1.9 | 48.6% | 43.5% | lost(1) |
| Under 2.5 blocks | May 28 · projected 1.4 | 1.4 | 100.0% | 84.6% | won(2) |
| Under 1.5 threePointersMade | May 28 · projected 0.5 | 0.5 | 99.2% | 71.4% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 threePointersMade | May 24 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 72.9% | 62.3% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 blocks | May 24 · projected 1.2 | 1.2 | 67.4% | 56.5% | won(1) |
| Under 1.5 steals | May 24 · projected 0.5 | 0.5 | 100.0% | 81.0% | won(0) |
| Under 2.5 assists | May 24 · projected 0 | 0 | 85.2% | 85.2% | won(2) |
| Under 6.5 rebounds | May 24 · projected 3.9 | 3.9 | 44.3% | 37.0% | lost(7) |
| Under 6.5 rebounds | May 22 · projected 3.9 | 3.9 | 43.9% | 32.3% | won(3) |
| Under 2.5 blocks | May 22 · projected 1.2 | 1.2 | 85.7% | 80.0% | won(0) |
| Under 1.5 threePointersMade | May 22 · projected 1.1 | 1.1 | 73.0% | 60.0% | won(1) |
| Under 9.5 points | May 22 · projected 0 | 0 | 30.3% | 29.4% | lost(10) |
| Under 9.5 points | May 20 · projected 0 | 0 | 29.9% | 26.7% | lost(10) |
| Under 6.5 rebounds | May 20 · projected 4.5 | 4.5 | 43.2% | 26.7% | won(4) |
- Under 11.5 reboundsMay 30 · projected 6.6won(4)
- Model
- 99.0%
- Book
- 86.7%
- Over 0.5 assistsMay 30 · projected 1.3lost(0)
- Model
- 76.0%
- Book
- 73.3%
- Under 2.5 threePointersMadeMay 30 · projected 1.3won(0)
- Model
- 100.0%
- Book
- 90.0%
- Under 15.5 pointsMay 30 · projected 13.8won(4)
- Model
- 69.1%
- Book
- 64.9%
- Under 6.5 reboundsMay 28 · projected 5.5lost(7)
- Model
- 43.6%
- Book
- 36.4%
- Under 15.5 pointsMay 28 · projected 12.1won(10)
- Model
- 70.9%
- Book
- 57.4%
- Over 1.5 assistsMay 28 · projected 1.9lost(1)
- Model
- 48.6%
- Book
- 43.5%
- Under 2.5 blocksMay 28 · projected 1.4won(2)
- Model
- 100.0%
- Book
- 84.6%
- Under 1.5 threePointersMadeMay 28 · projected 0.5won(0)
- Model
- 99.2%
- Book
- 71.4%
- Under 1.5 threePointersMadeMay 24 · projected 1.1won(0)
- Model
- 72.9%
- Book
- 62.3%
- Under 1.5 blocksMay 24 · projected 1.2won(1)
- Model
- 67.4%
- Book
- 56.5%
- Under 1.5 stealsMay 24 · projected 0.5won(0)
- Model
- 100.0%
- Book
- 81.0%
- Under 2.5 assistsMay 24 · projected 0won(2)
- Model
- 85.2%
- Book
- 85.2%
- Under 6.5 reboundsMay 24 · projected 3.9lost(7)
- Model
- 44.3%
- Book
- 37.0%
- Under 6.5 reboundsMay 22 · projected 3.9won(3)
- Model
- 43.9%
- Book
- 32.3%
- Under 2.5 blocksMay 22 · projected 1.2won(0)
- Model
- 85.7%
- Book
- 80.0%
- Under 1.5 threePointersMadeMay 22 · projected 1.1won(1)
- Model
- 73.0%
- Book
- 60.0%
- Under 9.5 pointsMay 22 · projected 0lost(10)
- Model
- 30.3%
- Book
- 29.4%
- Under 9.5 pointsMay 20 · projected 0lost(10)
- Model
- 29.9%
- Book
- 26.7%
- Under 6.5 reboundsMay 20 · projected 4.5won(4)
- Model
- 43.2%
- Book
- 26.7%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
How has the model done on Chet Holmgren's props?
Across the last 20 graded model lines on Chet Holmgren, 14 won and 6 lost.
Every Chet Holmgren line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).