EdgeGoat
Sam Merrill
Cleveland Cavaliers · #5 · 0 games logged
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 threePointersMade | May 25 · projected 2.0 | 2.0 | 68.6% | 61.5% | won(1) |
| Under 4.5 points | May 25 · projected 0 | 0 | 25.0% | 23.5% | lost(5) |
| Under 1.5 rebounds | May 25 · projected 0.4 | 0.4 | 62.4% | 53.5% | won(1) |
| Under 2.5 threePointersMade | May 21 · projected 2.0 | 2.0 | 68.2% | 64.9% | won(0) |
| Over 0.5 threePointersMade | May 19 · projected 1.8 | 1.8 | 83.7% | 78.9% | won(1) |
| Over 5.5 points | May 15 · projected 7.5 | 7.5 | 65.5% | 54.5% | won(8) |
| Over 1.5 threePointersMade | May 15 · projected 1.9 | 1.9 | 56.6% | 47.6% | won(2) |
| Over 4.5 points | May 5 · projected 7.9 | 7.9 | 77.8% | 69.7% | lost(0) |
| Over 1.5 threePointersMade | May 5 · projected 2.0 | 2.0 | 59.7% | 50.0% | lost(0) |
- Under 2.5 threePointersMadeMay 25 · projected 2.0won(1)
- Model
- 68.6%
- Book
- 61.5%
- Under 4.5 pointsMay 25 · projected 0lost(5)
- Model
- 25.0%
- Book
- 23.5%
- Under 1.5 reboundsMay 25 · projected 0.4won(1)
- Model
- 62.4%
- Book
- 53.5%
- Under 2.5 threePointersMadeMay 21 · projected 2.0won(0)
- Model
- 68.2%
- Book
- 64.9%
- Over 0.5 threePointersMadeMay 19 · projected 1.8won(1)
- Model
- 83.7%
- Book
- 78.9%
- Over 5.5 pointsMay 15 · projected 7.5won(8)
- Model
- 65.5%
- Book
- 54.5%
- Over 1.5 threePointersMadeMay 15 · projected 1.9won(2)
- Model
- 56.6%
- Book
- 47.6%
- Over 4.5 pointsMay 5 · projected 7.9lost(0)
- Model
- 77.8%
- Book
- 69.7%
- Over 1.5 threePointersMadeMay 5 · projected 2.0lost(0)
- Model
- 59.7%
- Book
- 50.0%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
How has the model done on Sam Merrill's props?
Across the last 9 graded model lines on Sam Merrill, 6 won and 3 lost.
Every Sam Merrill line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).