EdgeGoatCincinnati Bearcats at Dayton FlyersPreview · NCAAB · Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET
UD Arena, Dayton
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
63.5%71.4%−7.9 pts
Model63.5%Book−25071.4%Edge−7.9 pts
36.5%33.3%+3.1 pts
Model36.5%Book+20033.3%Edge+3.1 pts
SpreadModel: CIN by 4.6
DAY +5.5
Model52.6%Book52.4%−110+0.2 pts
TotalModel: 143.3 points
Under 147.5
Model60.0%Book52.4%−110+7.6 pts
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAY ML | 36.5% | 33.3%+200 | +3.1 pts |
| CIN ML | 63.5% | 71.4%−250 | −7.9 pts |
| DAY +5.5 | 52.6% | 52.4%−110 | +0.2 pts |
| CIN -5.5 | 47.4% | 52.4%−110 | −5.0 pts |
| Over 147.5 | 40.0% | 52.4%−110 | −12.4 pts |
| Under 147.5 | 60.0% | 52.4%−110 | +7.6 pts |
- DAY ML+3.1 pts
- Model
- 36.5%
- Book
- 33.3%+200
- CIN ML−7.9 pts
- Model
- 63.5%
- Book
- 71.4%−250
- DAY +5.5+0.2 pts
- Model
- 52.6%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- CIN -5.5−5.0 pts
- Model
- 47.4%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Over 147.5−12.4 pts
- Model
- 40.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 147.5+7.6 pts
- Model
- 60.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Frequently asked questions
When does Cincinnati Bearcats at Dayton Flyers start?
Cincinnati Bearcats at Dayton Flyers (NCAAB) starts at 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, November 14, 2026 at UD Arena, Dayton.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Cincinnati Bearcats at Dayton Flyers?
The model projects about 143.3 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Cincinnati Bearcats at Dayton Flyers?
The model favors Cincinnati Bearcats by about 4.6 points.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).