EdgeGoatNorthwestern State Demons at Little Rock TrojansPreview · NCAAB · Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET
Jack Stephens Center, Little Rock
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| LR ML | 64.0% | 84.0%−525 | −20.0 pts |
| NWST ML | 36.0% | 21.1%+375 | +15.0 pts |
| LR -9.5 | 36.2% | 52.4%−110 | −16.2 pts |
| NWST +9.5 | 63.8% | 52.4%−110 | +11.4 pts |
| Over 143.5 | 50.2% | 52.4%−110 | −2.1 pts |
| Under 143.5 | 49.8% | 52.4%−110 | −2.6 pts |
- LR ML−20.0 pts
- Model
- 64.0%
- Book
- 84.0%−525
- NWST ML+15.0 pts
- Model
- 36.0%
- Book
- 21.1%+375
- LR -9.5−16.2 pts
- Model
- 36.2%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- NWST +9.5+11.4 pts
- Model
- 63.8%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Over 143.5−2.1 pts
- Model
- 50.2%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 143.5−2.6 pts
- Model
- 49.8%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Frequently asked questions
When does Northwestern State Demons at Little Rock Trojans start?
Northwestern State Demons at Little Rock Trojans (NCAAB) starts at 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 14, 2026 at Jack Stephens Center, Little Rock.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Northwestern State Demons at Little Rock Trojans?
The model projects about 143.6 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Northwestern State Demons at Little Rock Trojans?
The model favors Little Rock Trojans by about 4.8 points.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).