EdgeGoatUC Davis Aggies at Sacramento State HornetsPreview · NCAAB · Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET
Hornet Pavilion, Sacramento
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAC ML | 53.6% | 62.3%−165 | −8.7 pts |
| UCD ML | 46.4% | 43.5%+130 | +3.0 pts |
| SAC -2.5 | 46.3% | 54.5%−120 | −8.2 pts |
| UCD +2.5 | 53.7% | 50.0%+100 | +3.7 pts |
| Over 160.5 | 36.0% | 52.4%−110 | −16.4 pts |
| Under 160.5 | 64.0% | 52.4%−110 | +11.6 pts |
- SAC ML−8.7 pts
- Model
- 53.6%
- Book
- 62.3%−165
- UCD ML+3.0 pts
- Model
- 46.4%
- Book
- 43.5%+130
- SAC -2.5−8.2 pts
- Model
- 46.3%
- Book
- 54.5%−120
- UCD +2.5+3.7 pts
- Model
- 53.7%
- Book
- 50.0%+100
- Over 160.5−16.4 pts
- Model
- 36.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 160.5+11.6 pts
- Model
- 64.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Frequently asked questions
When does UC Davis Aggies at Sacramento State Hornets start?
UC Davis Aggies at Sacramento State Hornets (NCAAB) starts at 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 14, 2026 at Hornet Pavilion, Sacramento.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for UC Davis Aggies at Sacramento State Hornets?
The model projects about 154.2 combined points.
Who does the model favor in UC Davis Aggies at Sacramento State Hornets?
The model favors Sacramento State Hornets by about 1.2 points.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).