EdgeGoatUMBC Retrievers at Towson TigersPreview · NCAAB · Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET
SECU Arena, Towson
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
21.0%20.0%+1.0 pts
Model21.0%Book+40020.0%Edge+1.0 pts
79.0%84.6%−5.6 pts
Model79.0%Book−55084.6%Edge−5.6 pts
SpreadModel: TOW by 10.6
TOW -9.5
Model53.3%Book54.5%−120−1.3 pts
TotalModel: 142.0 points
Under 145.5
Model58.5%Book52.4%−110+6.1 pts
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOW ML | 79.0% | 84.6%−550 | −5.6 pts |
| UMBC ML | 21.0% | 20.0%+400 | +1.0 pts |
| TOW -9.5 | 53.3% | 54.5%−120 | −1.3 pts |
| UMBC +9.5 | 46.7% | 50.0%+100 | −3.3 pts |
| Over 145.5 | 41.5% | 52.4%−110 | −10.8 pts |
| Under 145.5 | 58.5% | 52.4%−110 | +6.1 pts |
- TOW ML−5.6 pts
- Model
- 79.0%
- Book
- 84.6%−550
- UMBC ML+1.0 pts
- Model
- 21.0%
- Book
- 20.0%+400
- TOW -9.5−1.3 pts
- Model
- 53.3%
- Book
- 54.5%−120
- UMBC +9.5−3.3 pts
- Model
- 46.7%
- Book
- 50.0%+100
- Over 145.5−10.8 pts
- Model
- 41.5%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 145.5+6.1 pts
- Model
- 58.5%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Frequently asked questions
When does UMBC Retrievers at Towson Tigers start?
UMBC Retrievers at Towson Tigers (NCAAB) starts at 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, November 14, 2026 at SECU Arena, Towson.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for UMBC Retrievers at Towson Tigers?
The model projects about 142.0 combined points.
Who does the model favor in UMBC Retrievers at Towson Tigers?
The model favors Towson Tigers by about 10.6 points.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).