EdgeGoatSouth Alabama Jaguars at North Texas Mean GreenPreview · NCAAB · Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 6:00 PM ET
The Super Pit, Denton
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
25.6%22.2%+3.4 pts
Model25.6%Book+35022.2%Edge+3.4 pts
74.4%82.6%−8.2 pts
Model74.4%Book−47582.6%Edge−8.2 pts
SpreadModel: UNT by 8.8
USA +8.5
Model49.1%Book51.2%−105−2.2 pts
TotalModel: 137.4 points
Over 133.5
Model59.5%Book52.4%−110+7.2 pts
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNT ML | 74.4% | 82.6%−475 | −8.2 pts |
| USA ML | 25.6% | 22.2%+350 | +3.4 pts |
| UNT -8.5 | 50.9% | 53.5%−115 | −2.6 pts |
| USA +8.5 | 49.1% | 51.2%−105 | −2.2 pts |
| Over 133.5 | 59.5% | 52.4%−110 | +7.2 pts |
| Under 133.5 | 40.5% | 52.4%−110 | −11.9 pts |
- UNT ML−8.2 pts
- Model
- 74.4%
- Book
- 82.6%−475
- USA ML+3.4 pts
- Model
- 25.6%
- Book
- 22.2%+350
- UNT -8.5−2.6 pts
- Model
- 50.9%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- USA +8.5−2.2 pts
- Model
- 49.1%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
- Over 133.5+7.2 pts
- Model
- 59.5%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 133.5−11.9 pts
- Model
- 40.5%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Frequently asked questions
When does South Alabama Jaguars at North Texas Mean Green start?
South Alabama Jaguars at North Texas Mean Green (NCAAB) starts at 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 14, 2026 at The Super Pit, Denton.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for South Alabama Jaguars at North Texas Mean Green?
The model projects about 137.4 combined points.
Who does the model favor in South Alabama Jaguars at North Texas Mean Green?
The model favors North Texas Mean Green by about 8.8 points.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).