EdgeGoat
Aaron Rodgers
Pittsburgh Steelers · #8 · 0 games logged
Model vs book today
Current lines the model prices for this player — including ones where the book's price is better than the model's number.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aaron Rodgers | Under 4.5 Rush YdsPIT @ CLE | 78.2% | 67.7%−210 | +10.5% |
- Under 4.5 Rush YdsPIT @ CLE+10.5%
- Model
- 78.2%
- Book
- 67.7%−210
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 18.5 Rush Yds | Sep 27 · projected 3.3 | 3.3 | 97.4% | 93.8% | won(10) |
| Under 21.5 passCompletions | Sep 20 · projected 19.9 | 19.9 | 58.9% | 56.5% | lost(22) |
| Over 0.5 passTDs | Sep 20 · projected 1.2 | 1.2 | 77.3% | 71.4% | lost(0) |
| Under 1.5 passTDs | Sep 13 · projected 1.2 | 1.2 | 61.5% | 58.3% | won(1) |
- Under 18.5 Rush YdsSep 27 · projected 3.3won(10)
- Model
- 97.4%
- Book
- 93.8%
- Under 21.5 passCompletionsSep 20 · projected 19.9lost(22)
- Model
- 58.9%
- Book
- 56.5%
- Over 0.5 passTDsSep 20 · projected 1.2lost(0)
- Model
- 77.3%
- Book
- 71.4%
- Under 1.5 passTDsSep 13 · projected 1.2won(1)
- Model
- 61.5%
- Book
- 58.3%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
What does the EdgeGoat model say about Aaron Rodgers today?
The strongest current line: Aaron Rodgers under 4.5 rush yds (−210): model 78.2% vs book 67.7%, an edge of +10.5%.
How has the model done on Aaron Rodgers's props?
Across the last 4 graded model lines on Aaron Rodgers, 2 won and 2 lost.
Every Aaron Rodgers line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).