EdgeGoat
Bo Nix
Denver Broncos · #10 · 0 games logged
Model vs book today
Current lines the model prices for this player — including ones where the book's price is better than the model's number.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bo Nix | Under 4.5 CarriesDEN @ SF | 58.2% | 51.2%−105 | +7.0% |
- Model
- 58.2%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 passInterceptions | Sep 27 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 55.0% | 53.5% | won(1) |
| Under 4.5 Carries | Sep 27 · projected 2.8 | 2.8 | 65.8% | 52.4% | won(4) |
| Under 50.5 rushYards | Sep 27 · projected 13.6 | 13.6 | 99.2% | 98.4% | won(7) |
| Under 4.5 Carries | Sep 20 · projected 3.0 | 3.0 | 62.2% | 53.5% | lost(5) |
| Over 33.5 passAttempts | Sep 20 · projected 35.7 | 35.7 | 60.0% | 55.6% | lost(30) |
| Under 4.5 Carries | Sep 14 · projected 3.6 | 3.6 | 58.8% | 58.3% | won(3) |
- Over 0.5 passInterceptionsSep 27 · projected 0.8won(1)
- Model
- 55.0%
- Book
- 53.5%
- Under 4.5 CarriesSep 27 · projected 2.8won(4)
- Model
- 65.8%
- Book
- 52.4%
- Under 50.5 rushYardsSep 27 · projected 13.6won(7)
- Model
- 99.2%
- Book
- 98.4%
- Under 4.5 CarriesSep 20 · projected 3.0lost(5)
- Model
- 62.2%
- Book
- 53.5%
- Over 33.5 passAttemptsSep 20 · projected 35.7lost(30)
- Model
- 60.0%
- Book
- 55.6%
- Under 4.5 CarriesSep 14 · projected 3.6won(3)
- Model
- 58.8%
- Book
- 58.3%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
What does the EdgeGoat model say about Bo Nix today?
The strongest current line: Bo Nix under 4.5 carries (−105): model 58.2% vs book 51.2%, an edge of +7.0%.
How has the model done on Bo Nix's props?
Across the last 6 graded model lines on Bo Nix, 4 won and 2 lost.
Every Bo Nix line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).