EdgeGoat
Brock Purdy
San Francisco 49ers · #13 · 0 games logged
Model vs book today
Current lines the model prices for this player — including ones where the book's price is better than the model's number.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brock Purdy | Over 16.5 Rush YdsDEN @ SF | 53.7% | 53.5%−115 | +0.2% |
- Over 16.5 Rush YdsDEN @ SF+0.2%
- Model
- 53.7%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 28.5 passAttempts | Sep 20 · projected 33.9 | 33.9 | 57.2% | 54.5% | lost(22) |
| Under 4.5 rushAttempts | Sep 20 · projected 3.6 | 3.6 | 61.4% | 58.3% | won(3) |
| Over 0.5 passInterceptions | Sep 20 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 59.1% | 42.6% | lost(0) |
- Over 28.5 passAttemptsSep 20 · projected 33.9lost(22)
- Model
- 57.2%
- Book
- 54.5%
- Under 4.5 rushAttemptsSep 20 · projected 3.6won(3)
- Model
- 61.4%
- Book
- 58.3%
- Over 0.5 passInterceptionsSep 20 · projected 0.9lost(0)
- Model
- 59.1%
- Book
- 42.6%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
What does the EdgeGoat model say about Brock Purdy today?
The strongest current line: Brock Purdy over 16.5 rush yds (−115): model 53.7% vs book 53.5%, an edge of +0.2%.
How has the model done on Brock Purdy's props?
Across the last 3 graded model lines on Brock Purdy, 1 won and 2 lost.
Every Brock Purdy line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).