EdgeGoat
Christian McCaffrey
San Francisco 49ers · #23 · 0 games logged
Model vs book today
Current lines the model prices for this player — including ones where the book's price is better than the model's number.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Christian McCaffrey | Under 109.5 Rush+Rec YdsDEN @ SF | 68.4% | 53.5%−115 | +14.9% |
| Christian McCaffrey | Under 15.5 CarriesDEN @ SF | 60.4% | 51.2%−105 | +9.2% |
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 14.5 Carries | Sep 20 · projected 11.9 | 11.9 | 61.8% | 53.5% | won(10) |
| Under 106.5 Rush+Rec Yds | Sep 20 · projected 81.9 | 81.9 | 57.9% | 53.5% | won(66) |
| Under 4.5 receptions | Sep 10 · projected 3.3 | 3.3 | 59.3% | 54.5% | lost(5) |
| Under 15.5 Carries | Sep 10 · projected 14.0 | 14.0 | 59.7% | 53.5% | won(10) |
| Under 104.5 Rush+Rec Yds | Sep 10 · projected 82.6 | 82.6 | 56.6% | 53.5% | won(88) |
| Under 64.5 recYards | Sep 10 · projected 29.0 | 29.0 | 91.2% | 85.2% | won(20) |
| Under 59.5 rushYards | Sep 10 · projected 50.6 | 50.6 | 58.8% | 52.4% | lost(67) |
- Under 14.5 CarriesSep 20 · projected 11.9won(10)
- Model
- 61.8%
- Book
- 53.5%
- Under 106.5 Rush+Rec YdsSep 20 · projected 81.9won(66)
- Model
- 57.9%
- Book
- 53.5%
- Under 4.5 receptionsSep 10 · projected 3.3lost(5)
- Model
- 59.3%
- Book
- 54.5%
- Under 15.5 CarriesSep 10 · projected 14.0won(10)
- Model
- 59.7%
- Book
- 53.5%
- Under 104.5 Rush+Rec YdsSep 10 · projected 82.6won(88)
- Model
- 56.6%
- Book
- 53.5%
- Under 64.5 recYardsSep 10 · projected 29.0won(20)
- Model
- 91.2%
- Book
- 85.2%
- Under 59.5 rushYardsSep 10 · projected 50.6lost(67)
- Model
- 58.8%
- Book
- 52.4%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
What does the EdgeGoat model say about Christian McCaffrey today?
The strongest current line: Christian McCaffrey under 109.5 rush+rec yds (−115): model 68.4% vs book 53.5%, an edge of +14.9%.
How has the model done on Christian McCaffrey's props?
Across the last 7 graded model lines on Christian McCaffrey, 5 won and 2 lost.
Every Christian McCaffrey line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).