EdgeGoat
Jake Ferguson
Dallas Cowboys · #87 · 0 games logged
Model vs book today
Current lines the model prices for this player — including ones where the book's price is better than the model's number.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jake Ferguson | Under 3.5 RecDAL @ HOU | 60.8% | 56.5%−130 | +4.2% |
- Under 3.5 RecDAL @ HOU+4.2%
- Model
- 60.8%
- Book
- 56.5%−130
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 Rec | Sep 27 · projected 2.9 | 2.9 | 59.3% | 52.4% | won(3) |
| Under 3.5 Rec | Sep 20 · projected 2.4 | 2.4 | 58.1% | 56.5% | lost(4) |
| Under 3.5 Rec | Sep 13 · projected 2.4 | 2.4 | 58.6% | 52.4% | won(2) |
- Under 3.5 RecSep 27 · projected 2.9won(3)
- Model
- 59.3%
- Book
- 52.4%
- Under 3.5 RecSep 20 · projected 2.4lost(4)
- Model
- 58.1%
- Book
- 56.5%
- Under 3.5 RecSep 13 · projected 2.4won(2)
- Model
- 58.6%
- Book
- 52.4%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
What does the EdgeGoat model say about Jake Ferguson today?
The strongest current line: Jake Ferguson under 3.5 rec (−130): model 60.8% vs book 56.5%, an edge of +4.2%.
How has the model done on Jake Ferguson's props?
Across the last 3 graded model lines on Jake Ferguson, 2 won and 1 lost.
Every Jake Ferguson line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).