EdgeGoat
Josh Allen
Buffalo Bills · #17 · 0 games logged
Model vs book today
Current lines the model prices for this player — including ones where the book's price is better than the model's number.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Josh Allen | Over 38.5 Rush YdsNE @ BUF | 55.4% | 40.8%+145 | +14.5% |
| Josh Allen | Under 238.5 Pass YdsNE @ BUF | 63.2% | 51.2%−105 | +12.0% |
| Josh Allen | Over 0.5 Anytime TDNE @ BUF | 58.6% | 53.5%−115 | +5.1% |
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Anytime TD | Sep 27 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 59.7% | 56.5% | won(1) |
| Over 38.5 Rush Yds | Sep 27 · projected 45.5 | 45.5 | 47.4% | 45.5% | lost(22) |
| Under 20.5 passCompletions | Sep 27 · projected 19.1 | 19.1 | 56.2% | 52.4% | won(16) |
| Under 21.5 passCompletions | Sep 17 · projected 17.3 | 17.3 | 88.2% | 55.6% | won(20) |
| Under 6.5 rushAttempts | Sep 17 · projected 2.7 | 2.7 | 78.2% | 51.2% | lost(7) |
| Under 20.5 passCompletions | Sep 13 · projected 18.7 | 18.7 | 65.0% | 55.6% | won(20) |
| Over 6.5 rushAttempts | Sep 13 · projected 8.2 | 8.2 | 56.0% | 55.6% | lost(6) |
- Over 0.5 Anytime TDSep 27 · projected 1.0won(1)
- Model
- 59.7%
- Book
- 56.5%
- Over 38.5 Rush YdsSep 27 · projected 45.5lost(22)
- Model
- 47.4%
- Book
- 45.5%
- Under 20.5 passCompletionsSep 27 · projected 19.1won(16)
- Model
- 56.2%
- Book
- 52.4%
- Under 21.5 passCompletionsSep 17 · projected 17.3won(20)
- Model
- 88.2%
- Book
- 55.6%
- Under 6.5 rushAttemptsSep 17 · projected 2.7lost(7)
- Model
- 78.2%
- Book
- 51.2%
- Under 20.5 passCompletionsSep 13 · projected 18.7won(20)
- Model
- 65.0%
- Book
- 55.6%
- Over 6.5 rushAttemptsSep 13 · projected 8.2lost(6)
- Model
- 56.0%
- Book
- 55.6%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
What does the EdgeGoat model say about Josh Allen today?
The strongest current line: Josh Allen over 38.5 rush yds (+145): model 55.4% vs book 40.8%, an edge of +14.5%.
How has the model done on Josh Allen's props?
Across the last 7 graded model lines on Josh Allen, 4 won and 3 lost.
Every Josh Allen line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).