EdgeGoat
Nico Collins
Houston Texans · #12 · 0 games logged
Model vs book today
Current lines the model prices for this player — including ones where the book's price is better than the model's number.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nico Collins | Under 5.5 RecDAL @ HOU | 62.4% | 56.5%−130 | +5.9% |
- Under 5.5 RecDAL @ HOU+5.9%
- Model
- 62.4%
- Book
- 56.5%−130
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 Rec | Sep 13 · projected 3.8 | 3.8 | 61.6% | 59.2% | lost(6) |
- Under 5.5 RecSep 13 · projected 3.8lost(6)
- Model
- 61.6%
- Book
- 59.2%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
What does the EdgeGoat model say about Nico Collins today?
The strongest current line: Nico Collins under 5.5 rec (−130): model 62.4% vs book 56.5%, an edge of +5.9%.
How has the model done on Nico Collins's props?
Across the last 1 graded model lines on Nico Collins, 0 won and 1 lost.
Every Nico Collins line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).