EdgeGoat
Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs · #15 · 0 games logged
Model vs book today
Current lines the model prices for this player — including ones where the book's price is better than the model's number.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Patrick Mahomes | Over 230.5 Pass YdsKC @ LV | 60.1% | 58.3%−140 | +1.8% |
- Over 230.5 Pass YdsKC @ LV+1.8%
- Model
- 60.1%
- Book
- 58.3%−140
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 249.5 Pass Yds | Sep 20 · projected 278.9 | 278.9 | 50.9% | 36.4% | won(253) |
| Under 4.5 rushAttempts | Sep 20 · projected 2.6 | 2.6 | 61.4% | 57.4% | won(2) |
| Over 1.5 rushAttempts | Sep 14 · projected 3.5 | 3.5 | 85.0% | 82.6% | won(2) |
- Over 249.5 Pass YdsSep 20 · projected 278.9won(253)
- Model
- 50.9%
- Book
- 36.4%
- Under 4.5 rushAttemptsSep 20 · projected 2.6won(2)
- Model
- 61.4%
- Book
- 57.4%
- Over 1.5 rushAttemptsSep 14 · projected 3.5won(2)
- Model
- 85.0%
- Book
- 82.6%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
What does the EdgeGoat model say about Patrick Mahomes today?
The strongest current line: Patrick Mahomes over 230.5 pass yds (−140): model 60.1% vs book 58.3%, an edge of +1.8%.
How has the model done on Patrick Mahomes's props?
Across the last 3 graded model lines on Patrick Mahomes, 3 won and 0 lost.
Every Patrick Mahomes line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).