EdgeGoat
Brock Nelson
Colorado Avalanche · #11 · 0 games logged
Model vs book today
Current lines the model prices for this player — including ones where the book's price is better than the model's number.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brock Nelson | Over 1.5 SOGLA @ COL | 62.8% | 60.8%−155 | +2.0% |
- Over 1.5 SOGLA @ COL+2.0%
- Model
- 62.8%
- Book
- 60.8%−155
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 SOG | May 5 · projected 1.9 | 1.9 | 79.5% | 66.1% | lost(0) |
| Under 0.5 nhlAssists | May 5 · projected 0.3 | 0.3 | 100.0% | 75.0% | lost(1) |
- Over 1.5 SOGMay 5 · projected 1.9lost(0)
- Model
- 79.5%
- Book
- 66.1%
- Under 0.5 nhlAssistsMay 5 · projected 0.3lost(1)
- Model
- 100.0%
- Book
- 75.0%
Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.
Frequently asked questions
What does the EdgeGoat model say about Brock Nelson today?
The strongest current line: Brock Nelson over 1.5 sog (−155): model 62.8% vs book 60.8%, an edge of +2.0%.
How has the model done on Brock Nelson's props?
Across the last 2 graded model lines on Brock Nelson, 0 won and 2 lost.
Every Brock Nelson line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).