EdgeGoatThe model's track record
A calibrated model is one whose 60% lines hit about 60% of the time. Here is how EdgeGoat's probabilities held up on settled lines, next to what the sportsbook's price implied.
The public record is publishing soon
We grade every line the model prices — misses included — and will publish the calibration here: how often lines hit at each model probability, next to the break-even rate of the sportsbook's price. Until then, the methodology below is how it will be measured.
How this is measured
- Frozen before the start. Each line's model probability and the sportsbook price are captured about five minutes before the game starts and never changed afterwards.
- Every priced line, not a selection. Calibration counts every primary line the model priced — not only the ones it liked — graded after the final. Wins and losses count; voids and pushes are excluded.
- Only the model that is live now. Lines priced by earlier model versions never mix in; each league shows when its current version went live.
- Book % is the break-even rate of the actual price, vig included (no de-vig). A line is profitable to bet only if it hits more often than that.
- No thin samples. A band is shown only with at least 200 settled lines.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.
See the model on today's slate
Model % next to book % on every line the model prices, with correlation-aware parlay math and live tracking.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).